The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 1 February 2010


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Monday, February 1 – TX/OK: Cloudy skies and below normal temperatures continue throughout the region. In Oklahoma, morning fog and freezing fog will be widespread. However, conditions should improve as temperatures warm above freezing today and tomorrow allowing the snow cover to begin melting. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with light to moderate southerly winds and with daytime highs ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. A weak front will move into the area Monday night shifting the winds back to northerly on Monday night and Tuesday. Lows Monday night will be in the 20s and daytime highs on Tuesday from the mid 40s to the low 50s. In Texas today, morning fog will be common over much of the area. Skies will be cloudy skies and temperatures will be warming into the upper 40s and low 50s. Winds will be from the south or southeast and light to moderate. There is a change of drizzle and light showers this morning. Overnight lows on Monday will range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday with winds shifting to northeasterly. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 50s in most of the state.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains circle around central and eastern Oklahoma going north this afternoon and then curving back around to the south as a weak frontal system moves through the area causing a wind shift. At the source, conditions this afternoon will be cool with a high around 40. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 20s tonight with temperatures about 10 degrees warmer tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today *** Poor conditions for pollen release today. Poor conditions for atmospheric transport. Temperatures at the source area will be too cold for pollen release today. Warming temperatures will allow for some release tomorrow.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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