The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 February 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, February 2 – TX/OK: Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue to dominate the region today with patchy fog or drizzle common this morning. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday but still below normal. Although clouds may clear this afternoon, they will move in again this evening as the next storm system begins to influence the area. Rain chances will increase on Wednesday and Wednesday night with widespread rain on Thursday. In Oklahoma today, afternoon highs will be in the 40s which will allow snow melting to continue. Winds will be light and variable but mainly from the northeast. Overnight lows will be in the 20s in the north to the low 30s in southern Oklahoma. On Tuesday, high temperatures will range from the mid 40s to 50s with light southeast winds. Skies will be cloudy with a chance of rain in central Oklahoma. In Texas today, highs will be in the 50s with cloudy skies and a chance of rain in the eastern and southeastern edge of the plateau. Winds will be light and from the northeast this afternoon. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s to upper 40s. Tomorrow, high temperatures in Texas will be in the 40s to low 50s with moderate winds from the east and widespread rain and thunderstorms.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move slowly south this afternoon under light northerly winds and then curve around to the west and then north as the winds shift overnight and tomorrow. At the source area in the Arbuckles temperatures will be in the upper 40s this afternoon with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds. Humidity will be high. Temperatures overnight will drop back into the low 30s with slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow. Skies will be cloudy tomorrow with a chance of rain.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today *** Poor conditions for pollen release today. Mostly unfavorable conditions for atmospheric transport. Temperatures will barely reach the favorable range this afternoon with high humidity and partly cloudy skies. This conditions are not favorable for pollen release resulting in a low threat today. In addition, we are close to the end of the pollen season, so the potential amount of pollen for release is lower.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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