The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 4 February 2010


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Thursday, February 04– TX/OK: Across the region today the weather will be stormy with rain to the south and a wintery mix across Oklahoma and areas northward. The weather will be moving towards the east this morning and afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible through the rest of the day. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s across Oklahoma, today, and in the 40’s to low 50’s across Texas. Temperatures tonight will be in the lower 30s north and upper 30s to lower 40s across Texas. Winds will begin from the east in Oklahoma at moderate levels, declining to light and variable conditions tonight. Across Texas winds are from the north, northeast in the western portion of the plateau, at moderate levels today. Tonight winds will remain from the north in most areas. On the plateau they will switch from the southwest late this evening into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will be cloudy to the north and partly cloudy to partly sunny across the Edwards plateau and its surrounding communities. Temperatures will remain in the 40s across Oklahoma but will move into the 60s across Texas. Wins will be moderate to strong from the northwest. Tomorrow night temperatures will dip into the 30s and 40s region wide with colder readings to the north. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy and winds will be moderate from the northwest. On the Plateau the winds will be light and switch, coming from the east overnight.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy skies, with cool temperatures reaching only the lower 40s along with moderate winds from the east will occur over the Oklahoma population today. There is a chance of rain or snow across the area today. Cloudy skies will remain tonight with a chance of snow or rain remaining. Winds will be light and temperatures in the lower 30s. Tomorrow will see cloudy skies with temperatures reaching into the mid 40s. winds will be moderate from the northwest. Overnight skies will be cloudy with a chance of rain and temperatures in the lower 30s. Winds will remain light to moderate levels from the northwest. The trajectories move initially to the northwest then turn to the southeast. The air appears stable travelling at the ground surface away from the Arbuckle population. The trees were recently inspected and little pollen remains to be released.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, Poor conditions tomorrow. Cold conditions will occur with poor conditions for release and transport as wet weather moves through the area. The trees are at the end of their pollination season so little pollen is available to be entrained into the atmosphere. Therefore there is a low threat both today and tomorrow. If there is any unreleased pollen, condition is poor for release as well as entrainment and travel. Tomorrow will be our last seasonal forecast for Juniperus asehei. We currently plan to begin forecasting this fall soon after the Thanksgiving holiday. Check the web site in late November for the beginning of the next season.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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