The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 1 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 1 - TX/OK: The region today will be cool as a dominant northerly breeze brings colder air across Oklahoma and into Texas. Today’s temperatures will be moderate but tonight the region will be in the teens in Oklahoma and only approach the “above freezing” mark in the other communities. Winds will be from the north and moderate across the region today, then shift across Texas coming more from the east and northeast overnight. Regionally the skies will be partly cloudy to partly sunny and dry. In Oklahoma today’s high temperatures will get into the mid-30s to lower 40s with partly sunny skies and winds starting from the north becoming light and variable overnight. High temperatures tomorrow will start to warm but only reach the mid-40s, but with sunny skies and light breezes out of the southeast. Sunday night low temperatures are expected to remain cold with temperatures in the mid 20’s. Across Texas Temperatures today will mostly be in the 50s with the warmest spots just breaking into the low 60s along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and winds will be light to moderate from the north. There is no predicted chance of precipitation through the forecast period. Tonight lows will be in the upper 20s towards the west and lower 30s towards the east. Winds will be light and from the east region wide as they begin to turn to a warmer more southerly direction. Tomorrow sunny skies will occur to the east with partly cloudy conditions west. High temperatures range across the 50s to just reaching 60 in the San Antonio region. The winds will continue to turn with light easterly moving toward southeasterly breezes will occur Sunday heading into Sunday night. Into the evening skies will become partly cloudy with cold conditions returning into the 20’s and 30’s. Low temperatures in the communities surrounding the eastern Edwards Plateau will be just above freezing for the most part.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move south then circle back towards the west and up over central Oklahoma in the next 48 hours. This movement comes as regional winds switch from a predominantly northern flow to a predominant southern flow moving towards coming from the southwest. Skies will be clearing from partly and mostly cloudy to full sunshine in many areas today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be cool with highs only in the 50’s today and upper 50s tomorrow. Frigid conditions will occur both nights with temperatures near or below freezing. Winds will be moderate today but falling off with the denser, heavier cold air. The cold air body will have little buoyancy and thus the entrainment and travel potential of pollen that is release will be restricted. Cold conditions should reduce significant pollen release both today and tomorrow. However conditions will be improving tomorrow and into the week.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and ModerateThreat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and Moderate conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and Moderate for tomorrow. Today will see mixed sky conditions ranging from partly cloudy to the west today and tomorrow to Sunny conditions to the ast. Light to moderate winds both day but temperatures in the 50s both days. Overnight the region will see temperatures near to below freezing. The trees are entering into the most active portion of their pollination season however the overall cold conditions may restrain pollen release today and tomorrow. If pollen occurs the generally heavy air and light winds should further hamper significant entrainment and travel, However, localized heavy concentrations are not only likey but probable resulting in High concentrations. For these reasons we are calling for moderate conditions and expect them to primarily occur within general Edwards Plateau area with little long distance dispersal.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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