The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sunday, January 2 - TX/OK: The region today will be cool as a dominant northerly breeze brings colder air across Oklahoma and into Texas. Today’s temperatures will be moderate but tonight the region will be in the teens in Oklahoma and only approach the “above freezing” mark in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the north and moderate across the region today, then shift across Texas coming more from the east and northeast overnight. Regionally the skies will be partly cloudy to partly sunny and dry. Similar conditions are forecast for Monday, however winds will pick up Monday afternoon as the winds shift from the current northerly direction to a southerly direction by Monday afternoon and evening.. In Oklahoma high temperatures will start to warm but only reach the mid-40s, but with sunny skies and light breezes out of the southeast. Sunday night low temperatures are expected to remain cold with temperatures in the mid 20’s. On Monday skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the 50s. Winds will be strong from the south ranging from 10 to 20 mph early and beginning to decline towards the evening. Monday night will return to the 20’s in terms of temperatures and have light and variable winds across the region. In Texas, sunny skies will occur to the east with partly cloudy conditions west. High temperatures range across the 50s to just reaching 60 in the San Antonio region. The winds will continue to turn with light easterly breezes moving towards the southeast this afternoon and tonight. Into the evening skies will become partly cloudy with cold conditions returning into the 20’s and 30’s. Low temperatures in the communities surrounding the eastern Edwards Plateau will be just above freezing for the most part. Monday will return with partly sunny skies to the east and increasing clouds to the west, but only achieving partly cloudy skies in those areas. Temperatures will warm by about 5 degrees across the region leaving most western areas in the upper 50’s and those to the ease and surrounding the Edwards Plateau in the low 60’s. Winds will be from the south and start modest but gain to strong levels into the afternoon and evening. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday night with most areas reaching the 30’s but not below freezing.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move up over central Oklahoma in the next 48 hours. This movement comes as regional winds switch from a predominantly northern flow to a predominant southern flow moving towards coming from the southwest. Skies will be clearing from partly sunny to full sunshine today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be cold with highs only in the lower 40’s today but into the 50s tomorrow. Frigid conditions will occur both nights with temperatures well below freezing. Winds will be moderate today but increasing on Monday as southerly winds move into the area. The warmer air will have more buoyancy and thus the entrainment and travel potential of pollen that is released will be good. Monday appears to have very good conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow. Moderatre conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow are much better with buoyant air and strong winds. Sunny conditions but with light winds and temperatures only in the 30’s to low 40’s occur today across Oklahoma. The cooling trend will continue tomorrow as the cold air that moved southward across the region lingers. Pollination is not expected to occur with the colder temperatures. With cold dense air across the region, little entrainment and travel is expected. For these reasons there is a low threat of pollen to Oklahoma today and tomorrow. Conditions will get start to improve tomorrow and tomorrow evening with slightly warmer temperatures and the return of warmer southerly breezes.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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