The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sunday, January 2 - TX/OK: The region today will be cool as a dominant northerly breeze brings colder air across Oklahoma and into Texas. Today’s temperatures will be moderate but tonight the region will be in the teens in Oklahoma and only approach the “above freezing” mark in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the north and moderate across the region today, then shift across Texas coming more from the east and northeast overnight. Regionally the skies will be partly cloudy to partly sunny and dry. Similar conditions are forecast for Monday, however winds will pick up Monday afternoon as the winds shift from the current northerly direction to a southerly direction by Monday afternoon and evening.. In Oklahoma high temperatures will start to warm but only reach the mid-40s, but with sunny skies and light breezes out of the southeast. Sunday night low temperatures are expected to remain cold with temperatures in the mid 20’s. On Monday skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the 50s. Winds will be strong from the south ranging from 10 to 20 mph early and beginning to decline towards the evening. Monday night will return to the 20’s in terms of temperatures and have light and variable winds across the region. In Texas, sunny skies will occur to the east with partly cloudy conditions west. High temperatures range across the 50s to just reaching 60 in the San Antonio region. The winds will continue to turn with light easterly breezes moving towards the southeast this afternoon and tonight. Into the evening skies will become partly cloudy with cold conditions returning into the 20’s and 30’s. Low temperatures in the communities surrounding the eastern Edwards Plateau will be just above freezing for the most part. Monday will return with partly sunny skies to the east and increasing clouds to the west, but only achieving partly cloudy skies in those areas. Temperatures will warm by about 5 degrees across the region leaving most western areas in the upper 50’s and those to the ease and surrounding the Edwards Plateau in the low 60’s. Winds will be from the south and start modest but gain to strong levels into the afternoon and evening. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday night with most areas reaching the 30’s but not below freezing


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move south then circle back towards the west and up over central Oklahoma in the next 48 hours. This movement comes as regional winds switch from a predominantly northern flow to a predominant southern flow by Monday behind strong winds from the south. Skies will be clearing from partly and mostly cloudy to full sunshine in many areas today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be cool with highs only in the 50’s today and upper 50s to low 60s tomorrow. Frigid conditions will occur both nights with temperatures near or below freezing. Winds will be moderate today then building from the south during Monday becoming strong in the afternoon. The air body will have little buoyancy to begin with but conditions will become better by Monday and thus the entrainment and travel potential of pollen that is release today will be somewhat restricted but much better during daylight on Monday.


OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and Very Good conditions tomorrow. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and Good for tomorrow. Today will see mixed sky conditions ranging from partly cloudy to the west today and tomorrow to Sunny conditions to the east. Light to moderate winds today will be building towards tomorrow especially in the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 50s today and rise by about 5 degrees for tomorrow. Overnight the region will see temperatures near to below freezing. The trees are entering into the most active portion of their pollination season however the overall cool conditions have retarded pollen release. Increasingly good pollen release conditions are expected to occur on Sunday and especially on Monday. Buoyant air and increasing wind strenth should further enhance significant entrainment and travel on Monday. For these reasons we are calling for good conditions building over Sunday and Monday and a high threat of effects to occur in downwind communities. Trajectory weather:

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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