The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 03 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 03 – TX/OK: The region today will be mild as warm southerly breezes blow across the region. Today’s temperatures will be mild and in the 50s to 60s then staying in the 40’s and 50’s tonight across Texas. In Oklahoma temperatures will dip below freezing across most of Oklahoma. Clear skies across Oklahoma will be sunny today with high temperatures in the southern portion of the state in the mid 50’s. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 mph. Tonight cloudy conditions begin to build from the south to partly cloudy levels with low temperatures in the mid- to lower 20’s. Winds will shift overnight from a southerly direction to coming out of the north. Winds will begin light and variable but build overnight as another incursion of cold air heads towards the southern Great Plains. Tomorrow temperatures will cool by about 10 degrees with highs expected in the mid 40’s to 50. Winds will be from the northeast and light declining to light and variable conditions Tuesday evening. In Texas mostly cloudy conditions will occur along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau with temperatures warming into the 60’s as southerly winds blow at moderate levels. Winds will be increasing to moderate to strong levels this afternoon. The western side of the Edwards Plateau will be partly cloudy. Overnight temperatures will be mild with lows in the 40’s to the east and 30’s to the west. Winds will begin to turn coming from the west overnight and eventually coming out of the north on Tuesday. Conditions on Tuesday will become cloudier with drizzle and fog in the edge communities and a 20% chance of showers during the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the low 60’s across the area. Winds will be moderate from the north. Overnight winds will once more turn to a southerly direction on the western side of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be mild, in the low 40’s in most regions, dipping into the upper 30s in the western most areas. A 20% chance of showers will continue overnight, Tuesday, along the eastern Edge Communities.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northward over the top of Oklahoma today, then towards the east as the overall wind field shifts from a southerly to a northerly direction. This movement comes as regional winds switch from a predominantly southerly flow to a predominant northern flow for Tuesday. Skies will move towards partly cloudy to cloudy conditions this afternoon and tomorrow. Temperatures will be seasonal but cool in the 40’s and lower 50’s today and tomorrow. Frigid conditions will occur both nights with temperatures well below freezing. Winds will be moderate today from the south, turning overnight to a westerly flow and then coming from the north tomorrow and tomorrow night. The incursion of colder air from the west and north, tomorrow, will be dense and have light winds behind it, so ground surface movement will be reduced and stay in the general Oklahoma region. At upper elevations stronger winds will take any entrained material off towards the east.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow. Moderatre conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Sunny conditions but with light winds and temperatures only in the mid 50’s occur today across the Oklahoma tree population. The cooling trend will continue tomorrow as cold air moves southward across the region on northerly winds, but winds will remain light. Pollination may occur with the cooler temperatures today and tomorrow, however light winds swirling around the state will keep ground level material within the area. With cooler dense air moving into the region for Tuesday, little entrainment and travel is expected. For these reasons there is a moderate threat of pollen moving across Oklahoma today. Tomorrow conditions will continue to be marginal as the northerly breezes further cools the region with most areas anchored in the 40’s, partly cloudy skies and light winds from the north.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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