The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 4 January 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 04 – TX/OK: The region today will be mild as light winds from the north settle over the area. Today’s temperatures will be mild, in the 50s to 60s over Texas and the 40’s across Oklahoma, with low temperatures in the 30’s to 40s in most areas and mid-twenties in Oklahoma. In Oklahoma partly cloudy to cloudy skies and cool conditions will occur today with the high temperatures just getting into the 40s. Winds will be from the north and be light and variable. Overnight light and variable winds will predominate. Temperatures will drop into the twenties then warm into the lower 50’s tomorrow. Tomorrow night temperatures will be in the upper twenties. Light and variable winds are expected all day tomorrow. In Texas, today’s conditions will see partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies this morning, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures will be in the upper 50’s to the west and low 60’s to the east. The communities along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau will have a chance of drizzle this morning with a 20% chance of thundershowers this afternoon. Winds will be light and from the northwest in the eastern communities and from the west in the western portion of the plateau region. Overnight calm winds will prevail and temperatures will drop into the 30’s to the west and 40’s to the east under cloudy skies and calm winds from the north to northeast. Tomorrow will warm slightly with high temperatures expected in the 60’s. The southernmost communities may top out at 70. Winds will remain light. Tomorrow night partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with temperatures dropping into the 20’s and 30’s in most areas. Winds remain steady from the north and northwest at light conditions.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains swirl around the site eventually moving off to the east on light and variable winds today and tomorrow. The trajectories show that the winds do not leave the borders of Oklahoma over the next 48 hours. Skies will be partly cloudy today and tomorrow with cloudy conditions overnight, both nights. High temperatures will be in the 40’s today and mid 50’s tomorrow. Cold conditions will occur both nights with temperatures well below freezing. The incursion of heavy colder air from the northeast today and tomorrow will have light winds behind it, so ground surface movement will be reduced across the general Oklahoma region.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Cloudy conditions with light winds and temperatures only in the 40’s occur today across the Oklahoma tree population. The cool conditions will continue tomorrow as cold stable air sits across the region. Winds on both days will remain light and variable. Pollination is not expected to occur with the cooler temperatures today although slightly warmer conditions tomorrow may result in some being released. However, light winds swirling around the state will keep entrainment and travel at a minimum, and thus little entrainment and travel is expected. For these reasons there is a low threat of pollen moving across Oklahoma today. Tomorrow conditions will continue to be marginal as cool temperatures remain with light and variable breezes.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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