The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 4 January 2011
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 04 – TX/OK:
The region today will be mild as light winds from the north settle over the area. Today’s temperatures will be
mild, in the 50s to 60s over Texas and the 40’s across Oklahoma, with low temperatures in the 30’s to 40s in most
areas and mid-twenties in Oklahoma. In Oklahoma partly cloudy to cloudy skies and cool conditions will occur today
with the high temperatures just getting into the 40s. Winds will be from the north and be light and variable.
Overnight light and variable winds will predominate. Temperatures will drop into the twenties then warm into
the lower 50’s tomorrow. Tomorrow night temperatures will be in the upper twenties. Light and variable winds
are expected all day tomorrow. In Texas, today’s conditions will see partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies this
morning, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures will be in the upper 50’s to the west and low 60’s
to the east. The communities along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau will have a chance of drizzle this
morning with a 20% chance of thundershowers this afternoon. Winds will be light and from the northwest in the
eastern communities and from the west in the western portion of the plateau region. Overnight calm winds will
prevail and temperatures will drop into the 30’s to the west and 40’s to the east under cloudy skies and calm winds
from the north to northeast. Tomorrow will warm slightly with high temperatures expected in the 60’s. The southernmost
communities may top out at 70. Winds will remain light. Tomorrow night partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue
with temperatures dropping into the 20’s and 30’s in most areas. Winds remain steady from the north and northwest
at light conditions.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains swirl around the site eventually moving
off to the east on light and variable winds today and tomorrow. The trajectories show that the winds do not leave
the borders of Oklahoma over the next 48 hours. Skies will be partly cloudy today and tomorrow with cloudy conditions
overnight, both nights. High temperatures will be in the 40’s today and mid 50’s tomorrow. Cold conditions will
occur both nights with temperatures well below freezing. The incursion of heavy colder air from the northeast
today and tomorrow will have light winds behind it, so ground surface movement will be reduced across the general
Oklahoma region.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for
pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today
and tomorrow. Cloudy conditions with light winds and temperatures only in the 40’s occur today across the Oklahoma
tree population. The cool conditions will continue tomorrow as cold stable air sits across the region. Winds
on both days will remain light and variable. Pollination is not expected to occur with the cooler temperatures
today although slightly warmer conditions tomorrow may result in some being released. However, light winds swirling
around the state will keep entrainment and travel at a minimum, and thus little entrainment and travel is expected.
For these reasons there is a low threat of pollen moving across Oklahoma today. Tomorrow conditions will continue
to be marginal as cool temperatures remain with light and variable breezes.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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