The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 4 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 04 – TX/OK: The region today will be mild as light winds from the north settle over the area. Today’s temperatures will be mild, in the 50s to 60s over Texas and the 40’s across Oklahoma, with low temperatures in the 30’s to 40s in most areas and mid-twenties in Oklahoma. In Oklahoma partly cloudy to cloudy skies and cool conditions will occur today with the high temperatures just getting into the 40s. Winds will be from the north and be light and variable. Overnight light and variable winds will predominate. Temperatures will drop into the twenties then warm into the lower 50’s tomorrow. Tomorrow night temperatures will be in the upper twenties. Light and variable winds are expected all day tomorrow. In Texas, today’s conditions will see partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies this morning, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures will be in the upper 50’s to the west and low 60’s to the east. The communities along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau will have a chance of drizzle this morning with a 20% chance of thundershowers this afternoon. Winds will be light and from the northwest in the eastern communities and from the west in the western portion of the plateau region. Overnight calm winds will prevail and temperatures will drop into the 30’s to the west and 40’s to the east under cloudy skies and calm winds from the north to northeast. Tomorrow will warm slightly with high temperatures expected in the 60’s. The southernmost communities may top out at 70. Winds will remain light. Tomorrow night partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with temperatures dropping into the 20’s and 30’s in most areas. Winds remain steady from the north and northwest at light conditions.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move generally southward over the top of Texas today as light and variable winds provide a mix of wind directions over Texas. This movement comes as regional winds switch from a predominantly northerly flow to the northeast, then northwest and west. Overall winds will be light and the air will be relatively dense. Skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy conditions today, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. There will be a chance of drizzle and fog along with a 20% chance of rain in the eastern edge communities this morning shifting to a 20% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be seasonal in the upper 50’s to mid-60’s today and tomorrow. Tomorrow is expected to be slightly warmer by a few degrees than today. Cool conditions will occur both nights with temperatures in the 30’s to 40’s tonight, then dropping below freezing to the west tomorrow night with the rest of the area in the 30’s. The most distinctive characteristic of the region over the next two days will be the light mixed winds over the region. The trajectories show that over the next 48 hours winds blowing across the Edwards Plateau, for the most part will be confined within the state boundaries. Light and variable winds can be expected over the forecast period. Because of these conditions, ground surface movement and pollen entrainment will be reduced and stay in the general Edwards Plateau region.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow*** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and Moderate conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and Poor for tomorrow. Today and tomorrow sky conditions will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with seasonal temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s. Winds will be light from the northeast today, and will calm tonight and tomorrow to generally light and variable conditions. The surface air appears to be relatively dense and stables so poor conditions exist for entrainment and travel. Overnight the region will see temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s. The trees are entering into the most active portion of their pollination season. However, the overall calm conditions should retard pollen entrainment for any long distance travel. This does not mean that high levels will not be encountered within the growing populations where release is ongoing. It is expected that in communities in which a lot trees grow high levels can still be expected, but transport out of the region will be limited. Therefore urban areas within the populations can still expect a Moderate level of exposure. Increasingly good pollen release conditions are expected to occur today and tomorrow. Dense air and increasing humidity with the chance of showers in the eastern Edwards Plateau region should further retard significant entrainment and travel today. For these reasons we are calling for a low threat today and tomorrow with the potential of pollen release but not significant travel downwind of the releasing trees.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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