The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 5 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 05 – TX/OK: The region today will continue to be mild with light winds from the northwest and west settle over the area for the next two days. Today’s temperatures will be mild, in the 50s to 60s over Texas and Oklahoma, with low temperatures in the 20’s and 30’s over the region. In Oklahoma daytime sunny skies and cool conditions will occur today with high temperatures in the low 50s north and upper 50s along the border. Winds will be from the northwest and be light reaching towards 10 miles per hour this morning then declining to light and variable conditions this afternoon and tonight. Similar conditions will occur tomorrow. Temperatures will drop into the twenties north and low 30’s south, then warm into the mid 50’s north and mid 60’s south tomorrow. Tomorrow night temperatures will be in the thirties. Light and variable winds are expected tomorrow. In Texas, today’s conditions will see mostly cloudy skies this morning along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau, with partly cloudy conditions further west. The edge communities along the Edwards Plateau are expected to experience fog this morning. Temperatures will be warming through the day into the 60’s approaching 70 in the southernmost communities. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will drop from the mid to low 30’s into the mid to upper 20’s. Winds will continue from the north to northwest at light levels. Partly cloudy conditions will remain over the Edwards Plateau tomorrow with partial clearing and sunny skies across Oklahoma southwards along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will return to the mid to upper 60’s and light winds from the northwest. Thursday night partly cloudy skies will return over the region with temperatures in the upper 20’s to the west and mid 30’s to the east. Winds will begin to shift Thursday night however wind strength remain light.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the southeast on winds from the northwest. Temperatures will be in the 50’s today in southern Oklahoma then cool into the southern 30’s tonight. The trajectories show that the air is heavy and cool with little buoyancy as they travel. Skies will be sunny today and tomorrow but becoming partly cloudy overnight tonight and tomorrow night. High temperatures will be in the upper 50’s today and will approach 60 tomorrow. Cool conditions will occur both nights with temperatures low to mid 30’s . The incursion of heavy colder air from the northwest today and tomorrow will have light winds behind it, so ground surface movement will be reduced across the general Oklahoma, northern Texas region.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Sunny conditions with light winds and temperatures in the upper 50’s today and reaching for 60 tomorrow occur across the Oklahoma tree population. The cool conditions will continue tomorrow as stable air sits across the region. Winds on both days will remain light and variable. Conditions for pollination is expected to be good today with slightly warmer conditions tomorrow should result in pollen being released. However, light winds and heavy air moving along the ground will keep entrainment and travel at a minimum, and thus little entrainment and travel is expected. For these reasons there is a moderate threat of pollen moving away from southern Oklahoma today. Tomorrow conditions will continue to be marginal as light and variable breezes along with heavy, dense air are across the region.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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