The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 5 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 05 – TX/OK: The region today will continue to be mild with light winds from the northwest and west settle over the area for the next two days. Today’s temperatures will be mild, in the 50s to 60s over Texas and Oklahoma, with low temperatures in the 20’s and 30’s over the region. In Oklahoma daytime sunny skies and cool conditions will occur today with high temperatures in the low 50s north and upper 50s along the border. Winds will be from the northwest and be light reaching towards 10 miles per hour this morning then declining to light and variable conditions this afternoon and tonight. Similar conditions will occur tomorrow. Temperatures will drop into the twenties north and low 30’s south, then warm into the mid 50’s north and mid 60’s south tomorrow. Tomorrow night temperatures will be in the thirties. Light and variable winds are expected tomorrow. In Texas, today’s conditions will see mostly cloudy skies this morning along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau, with partly cloudy conditions further west. The edge communities along the Edwards Plateau are expected to experience fog this morning. Temperatures will be warming through the day into the 60’s approaching 70 in the southernmost communities. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will drop from the mid to low 30’s into the mid to upper 20’s. Winds will continue from the north to northwest at light levels. Partly cloudy conditions will remain over the Edwards Plateau tomorrow with partial clearing and sunny skies across Oklahoma southwards along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will return to the mid to upper 60’s and light winds from the northwest. Thursday night partly cloudy skies will return over the region with temperatures in the upper 20’s to the west and mid 30’s to the east. Winds will begin to shift Thursday night however wind strength remain light.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move generally southeasterly over the top of Texas today with light and variable winds over Texas. This movement comes as regional winds remain predominantly northwesterly over the forecast period. Overall wind strength will be light and the air will be relatively dense travelling at the ground. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions today, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Tomorrow the edge communities can expect mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures will be cool but warming slightly. High temperatures will be mostly in the 60’s today with the southernmost communities approaching 70. Fog is expected along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau early today but burning off relatively quickly. Tomorrow is expected to be slightly cooler by a few degrees than today. Cool conditions will occur both nights with temperatures in the 20’s to 30’s tonight and tomorrow night. The most distinctive characteristic of the region over the next two days will be the light mixed winds over the region and the dense air over the region that will be moving along the ground. The trajectories show that over the next 48 hours winds blowing across the Edwards Plateau, for the most part will be confined within the state boundaries and moving towards the southeast. Light and variable winds can be expected over the forecast period. Because of these conditions, ground surface movement and pollen entrainment will be reduced and stay in the general Edwards Plateau region.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow*** Goodconditions for pollen release today andGood conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Today and tomorrow sky conditions will be partly cloudy during the night but clearing to mostly sunny conditions with seasonal temperatures in the 60’s and approaching 70 in some areas. Tomorrow temperatures will cool by 5 to 10 degrees in most areas. Winds will be light from the northeast today, and will calm tonight and tomorrow to generally light and variable conditions. The surface air appears to be relatively dense and stable creating poor conditions exist for entrainment and travel. Overnight the region will see temperatures in the 20’s and 30’s. The trees are entering into the most active portion of their pollination season. However, the overall calm conditions should retard pollen entrainment for any long distance travel. This does not mean that high levels will not be encountered within the growing populations where release is ongoing. It is expected that in communities in which a lot trees grow high levels can still be expected, but transport out of the region will be limited and to the southeast. Good pollen release conditions are expected to occur today and tomorrow. Dense air and light winds should further retard significant entrainment and travel today. For these reasons we are calling for a Moderate threat today and tomorrow with the potential of pollen release but not significant travel downwind of the releasing trees.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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