The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
Moderate |
San Antonio |
Moderate |
Date Issued: 6 January 2011
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Thursday, January 06 – TX/OK:
The region today will continue to be mild with light winds from the northwest and west settle over the area for
the next couple of days. Today’s temperatures will be mild, in the 50s to 60s over Texas and Oklahoma, with low
temperatures in the 20’s and 30’s over the region. There will be not much change for yesterday’s conditions.
In Oklahoma daytime sunny skies and cool conditions will occur today with high temperatures in the mid-50s north
and mid 60s along the border. Winds will be from the northwest and be light reaching towards 10 miles per hour
this morning in central Oklahoma but light and variable south towards the juniper population in the Arbuckle Mountains.
The winds remain light and variable this afternoon and tonight. Similar conditions will occur tomorrow. Temperatures
will drop into the t low 30’s tonight, then warm into the upper 50’s north and low 60’s south tomorrow. Tomorrow
night temperatures will be in the thirties. Light and variable winds are expected tomorrow. In Texas, today’s
conditions will see mostly sunny skies with partly sunny and partly cloudy conditions over the plateau. Temperatures
will be warming through the day into the 60’s approaching 70 in the southernmost communities. Tonight partly cloudy
conditions will drop from the mid to low 30’s into the mid to upper 20’s. Winds will continue from the north to
northwest at light levels. Partly cloudy conditions will remain over the Edwards Plateau tomorrow with partial
clearing and sunny skies across Oklahoma southwards along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures
will return to the mid to upper 60’s approaching 70 in places and light winds from the northwest. Thursday night
partly cloudy skies will return to the region with temperatures in the upper 30’s to the west and low 40’s to the
east. Winds will begin to shift Thursday night coming from the northeast however wind strength will remain light.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move generally easterward over the top
of Texas today driven by light and variable winds. This movement comes as the regional winds remain predominantly
northwesterly over the forecast period. Overall wind strength will be light and the air will be relatively dense
travelling at or near the ground. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions today, tonight, tomorrow
and tomorrow night over the Plateau. The edge communities can expect mostly sunny conditions today and tomorrow
with partly cloudy conditions overnight. Temperatures will be seasonal both days. High temperatures will be mostly
in the 60’s today with the southernmost communities approaching 70. Cool conditions will occur both nights with
temperatures in the 20’s to 30’s tonight and warming above freezing for most areas tomorrow night. The most distinctive
weather characteristic over the next two days will be the light mixed winds over the region and the dense air that
will be moving along the ground. The trajectories show that over the next 48 hours winds blowing across the Edwards
Plateau, for the most part, will be confined within the state boundaries and moving towards the east to southeast.
Light and variable winds can be expected over the forecast period. Because of these conditions, ground surface
movement and pollen entrainment will be reduced and stay in the general Edwards Plateau region.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Goodconditions
for pollen release today andGood conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today
and tomorrow. Today and tomorrow sky conditions will be partly cloudy during the night but clearing to mostly sunny
conditions with seasonal temperatures in the 60’s and approaching 70 in some areas. Winds will be light from the
northeast today, and will calm tonight and tomorrow to generally light and variable conditions. The surface air
appears to be relatively dense and stable creating poor conditions exist for entrainment and travel. Overnight
the region will see temperatures in the 20’s and 30’s. The trees are entering into the most active portion of
their pollination season. However, the overall calm conditions should retard pollen entrainment for any long distance
travel. This does not mean that high levels will not be encountered within the growing populations where release
is ongoing. It is expected that in communities in which a lot trees grow, high pollen levels can still be expected
but transport out of the region will be limited with trajectories flowing to the east and southeast. Good pollen
release conditions are expected to occur today and tomorrow. Dense air and light winds should further retard significant
entrainment and travel today. For these reasons we are calling for a Moderate threat today and tomorrow with the
potential of pollen release but not significant travel downwind of the releasing trees.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
Return to Forecasting Home Page