The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 7 January 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Thursday, January 07 – TX/OK: The region today will continue to be mild with light winds from the northwest and west although the weather will begin to deteriorate tomorrow towards the chance of rain across the area tomorrow night. Today’s temperatures will be mild, in the 50s to 60s over Texas and Oklahoma. Low temperatures will be in the 20’s and 30’s in Oklahoma and 30’s to 40’s in Texas tonight. Tomorrow will bring cooler conditions north and south with a building chance of precipitation during the afternoon into the evening. In Oklahoma daytime sunny skies and seasonal conditions will occur today with high temperatures in the mid-50s north and mid 60s along the border. Winds will be from the northwest and be light reaching towards 10 miles per hour this morning and afternoon. The winds return to light and variable conditions this afternoon and tonight. Conditions tomorrow will cool by ten degrees and winds will begin to move from the northwest to the northeast. Temperatures will drop into the 20’s and 30’s tonight, then warm into the mid 50’s to low 50’s tomorrow. Tomorrow night there will be an increasing chance of rain with lows in the mid 30’s in the Arbuckle Mountains where the junipers grow. In Texas, today’s conditions will see mostly sunny skies with partly sunny and partly cloudy conditions over the plateau. Temperatures will be warming through the day into the 60’s approaching 70 in the southernmost communities. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will give way to mostly cloudy conditions and temperatures will drop into the mid to low 30’s over most of the region. To the far west conditions my get below freezing. Winds will begin from the north to northwest at light levels but will turn coming from the northeast overnight and gain some strength. Tomorrow there is an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Edwards Plateau with the greatest chance occurring around the eastern edge of the Plateau. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will remain over the Edwards Plateau tomorrow. Temperatures will cool to the 50’s with the southern communities striving to get into the 60’s. Winds will be from the east shifting to the southeast heading into tomorrow night. There is a significant chance of rain over the entire Edwards Plateau tomorrow night.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the south on winds from the north, then circle around to the west as winds move to a northeasterly to east to southeast direction over the next 48 hours. Temperatures will approach 60 today in southern Oklahoma then cool into the 30’s tonight. Cool conditions overnight will remain with tomorrow’s highs only expected to be in the low 50’s. The trajectories show that the air is heavy and cool with little buoyancy as it travels at ground level. Skies will be sunny today and clear tonight, then partly cloudy tomorrow and tomorrow night as the region expects rain to move through. Cool conditions will occur both nights with temperatures in the low to mid 30’s . The incursion of heavy colder air today and tomorrow will result in light winds, so ground surface movement will be reduced across the general Oklahoma, northern Texas region.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Sunny conditions with light winds and temperatures in the mid 60’s today but cooling into the lower 50’s tomorrow occur across the Oklahoma tree population. Winds on both days will remain light and variable. Conditions for pollination is expected to be good today but cooler conditions tomorrow should result in pollen release being restricted. However, light winds and heavy air moving along the ground will keep entrainment and travel at a minimum, and thus little entrainment and travel is expected. For these reasons there is a moderate threat of pollen moving south and southwestward from southern Oklahoma today. Tomorrow conditions will continue to be deteriorate as light and variable breezes along with heavy, dense air are across the region building towards the possibility of rain showers tomorrow night.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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