The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 7 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 07 – TX/OK: The region today will continue to be mild with light winds from the northwest and west although the weather will begin to deteriorate tomorrow towards the chance of rain across the area tomorrow night. Today’s temperatures will be mild, in the 50s to 60s over Texas and Oklahoma. Low temperatures will be in the 20’s and 30’s in Oklahoma and 30’s to 40’s in Texas tonight. Tomorrow will bring cooler conditions north and south with a building chance of precipitation during the afternoon into the evening. In Oklahoma daytime sunny skies and seasonal conditions will occur today with high temperatures in the mid-50s north and mid 60s along the border. Winds will be from the northwest and be light reaching towards 10 miles per hour this morning and afternoon. The winds return to light and variable conditions this afternoon and tonight. Conditions tomorrow will cool by ten degrees and winds will begin to move from the northwest to the northeast. Temperatures will drop into the 20’s and 30’s tonight, then warm into the mid 50’s to low 50’s tomorrow. Tomorrow night there will be an increasing chance of rain with lows in the mid 30’s in the Arbuckle Mountains where the junipers grow. In Texas, today’s conditions will see mostly sunny skies with partly sunny and partly cloudy conditions over the plateau. Temperatures will be warming through the day into the 60’s approaching 70 in the southernmost communities. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will give way to mostly cloudy conditions and temperatures will drop into the mid to low 30’s over most of the region. To the far west conditions my get below freezing. Winds will begin from the north to northwest at light levels but will turn coming from the northeast overnight and gain some strength. Tomorrow there is an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Edwards Plateau with the greatest chance occurring around the eastern edge of the Plateau. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will remain over the Edwards Plateau tomorrow. Temperatures will cool to the 50’s with the southern communities striving to get into the 60’s. Winds will be from the east shifting to the southeast heading into tomorrow night. There is a significant chance of rain over the entire Edwards Plateau tomorrow night.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move generally eastward then southwestward and westward over the top of Texas driven by light and variable winds. This movement comes as the regional winds swing from a northwesterly direction this morning to northeasterly then easterly and eventually southeasterly over the forecast period. Overall wind strength will be light and the air will be relatively dense travelling at or near the ground. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy today but heavier clouds will move in tonight and tomorrow as the chance of rain increases. The edge communities can expect mostly sunny conditions today and tomorrow with partly cloudy conditions overnight. Temperatures will be seasonal both days with today being the warmest. Tomorrow should cool be 10 degrees with most areas staying in the mid 50’s. . Cool conditions will occur both nights with temperatures in the 30’s to 40’s. Over the next two days winds will be the light mixed over the region and the dense air that will be moving along the ground. Winds will increase generally from the northeast tomorrow night as a significant chance of rain will occur across the area. The trajectories show that over the next 48 hours winds blowing across the Edwards Plateau, for the most part, will be confined within the state boundaries. Light and variable winds can be expected over the forecast period. Because of these conditions, ground surface movement and pollen entrainment will be reduced and stay in the general Edwards Plateau region.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow*** Goodconditions for pollen release today andGood conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Today and tomorrow sky conditions will be partly cloudy during the night but clearing to mostly sunny conditions with seasonal temperatures in the 60’s and approaching 70 in some areas today. Winds will be light today and from the northeast tonight, then from the east tomorrow. The surface air continues to appear relatively dense and stable creating poor conditions for entrainment and travel. Overnight the region will see temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s. The trees are entering into the most active portion of their pollination season. However, the overall calm conditions should retard pollen entrainment for any long distance travel. This does not mean that high levels will not be encountered within the growing populations where release is ongoing. It is expected that in communities in which a lot trees grow, high pollen levels can still be expected but transport out of the region will be limited with trajectories flowing to the east and southeast. Good pollen release conditions are expected to occur today and tomorrow. Dense air and light winds should further retard significant entrainment and travel today. For these reasons we are calling for a Moderate threat today and tomorrow with the potential of pollen release but not significant travel downwind of the releasing trees. Tomorrow during the day there will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially across the Edwards Plateau. The increased humidity and especially any precipitation will clear the air of airborne particles in those areas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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