The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 8 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 08 – TX/OK: The region today will see weather deteriorate towards rain tonight. Temperatures will be cooling dramatically with a chance of snow and accumulation in northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. Today’s temperatures will be seasonal, in the 50s to 60s over the Texas and Oklahoma juniper populations. Low temperatures will be in the 20’s and 30’s in Oklahoma and 30’s to 40’s in Texas tonight. There is a significant chance of rain this afternoon and tonight. Tomorrow temperatures will be cooler with the chance of rain in the morning. In Oklahoma today partly cloudy and cloudy skies will occur across central and southern Oklahoma. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s, north, and lower 50s south, where the juniper populations grow. Winds will be from the northeast at mild conditions. This afternoon and into the evening, the weather will deteriorate with rain expected after midnight. Winds will start light but pickup through the night coming from the east. Tomorrow morning cloudy skies will prevail with a continuing chance of rain and snow and temperatures in the mid-30s. Winds will have moved, coming from the southeast to the area. Sunday night will continue with cloudy conditions and the chance of snow with temperatures in mid- to upper 20’s. In Texas, today’s conditions will begin with mostly sunny skies to the north and along the Edwards Plateau. The coming cloudy skies and rainy conditions will first occur to the west on the Edwards Plateau where this afternoon there is a 20% chance of precipitation. Temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to low and mid-60’s. Winds for the most part will be from the east starting light but gaining in strength through the afternoon as rain clouds build. Tonight most areas will experience rain with temperatures in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. Winds will remain from the east. Tomorrow, precipitation will continue in the morning with colder conditions across the region. High temperatures will be in the mid 30’s in the Dallas region then rising only into the low 50’s in the southern areas of the Edwards Plateau. A chance of rain exists for all regions. Winds will remain from the northeast, southeast at the western most locations, and with moderate strength. There will be a chance of snow accumulation from the Dallas region northward on Sunday and Sunday night. Overnight on Sunday temperatures will remain in the mid- to low 30’s across the area.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move initially westward on east winds, then are picked up by large scale atmospheric movement and is taken northward over western Oklahoma and into the upper midwest. Temperatures will only be in the low 50s today in southern Oklahoma then cool into the upper 20’s tonight. Cool conditions overnight will remain with tomorrow’s highs only expected to be in the mid 30’s. The trajectories show that the air is heavy and cool with little buoyancy initially before it is caught up in the wind fields further north.. Skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy throughout the forecast period, with an increase in moisture and the possibility of precipitation tonight and tomorrow. expects rain to move through. Cool conditions will occur both nights with temperatures in the 20’s and low 30’s .


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** mixed conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Cloudy conditions with light winds and temperatures in the mid 50’s today then cooling into the mid 30’s tomorrow occur across the Oklahoma tree population. Winds on both days will be moderate to light and variable. Conditions for pollination is expected to be good this morning but deteriorating and then cold tomorrow that should result in pollen release being restricted. However, light winds and heavy air moving along the ground will keep entrainment and travel at a minimum, and thus little entrainment and travel is expected. For these reasons there is a moderate threat of pollen release today but the other conditions will either be poor this morning and/or deteriorate during the day. Tomorrow conditions will continue to be deteriorate to cold and potentially wet conditions with the chance of rain showers and snow tonight through tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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