The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 8 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, January 08 – TX/OK: The region today will see weather deteriorate towards rain tonight. Temperatures will be cooling dramatically with a chance of snow and accumulation in northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. Today’s temperatures will be seasonal, in the 50s to 60s over the Texas and Oklahoma juniper populations. Low temperatures will be in the 20’s and 30’s in Oklahoma and 30’s to 40’s in Texas tonight. There is a significant chance of rain this afternoon and tonight. Tomorrow temperatures will be cooler with the chance of rain in the morning. In Oklahoma today partly cloudy and cloudy skies will occur across central and southern Oklahoma. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s, north, and lower 50s south, where the juniper populations grow. Winds will be from the northeast at mild conditions. This afternoon and into the evening, the weather will deteriorate with rain expected after midnight. Winds will start light but pickup through the night coming from the east. Tomorrow morning cloudy skies will prevail with a continuing chance of rain and snow and temperatures in the mid-30s. Winds will have moved, coming from the southeast to the area. Sunday night will continue with cloudy conditions and the chance of snow with temperatures in mid- to upper 20’s. In Texas, today’s conditions will begin with mostly sunny skies to the north and along the Edwards Plateau. The coming cloudy skies and rainy conditions will first occur to the west on the Edwards Plateau where this afternoon there is a 20% chance of precipitation. Temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to low and mid-60’s. Winds for the most part will be from the east starting light but gaining in strength through the afternoon as rain clouds build. Tonight most areas will experience rain with temperatures in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. Winds will remain from the east. Tomorrow, precipitation will continue in the morning with colder conditions across the region. High temperatures will be in the mid 30’s in the Dallas region then rising only into the low 50’s in the southern areas of the Edwards Plateau. A chance of rain exists for all regions. Winds will remain from the northeast, southeast at the western most locations, and with moderate strength. There will be a chance of snow accumulation from the Dallas region northward on Sunday and Sunday night. Overnight on Sunday temperatures will remain in the mid- to low 30’s across the area.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move generally westward then get caught in larger scale atmospheric movements and moves towards the north crossing westernmost Oklahoma before moving into the upper Midwest. Skies will be mostly sunny along the eastern Edwards Plateau this morning but will give way early today to increasing clouds as the chance of rain moves into the region. High temperatures will be in the mid 50’s to low 60’s today then decrease into the lower 50’s in the warmest portion of the region tomorrow. The chance of rain will begin this afternoon in the western most regions of the Edwards Plateau then move eastward. There is a significant chance of rain across the region tonight. The edge communities can expect lingering showers in most areas tomorrow throughout the morning and early afternoon. Over the next two days winds over the Plateau will be moderate over the region and mostly from the east, starting from the northeast and sliding eventually from the southeast. The trajectories generally move initially towards the west but are rapidly caught in the larger scale movement in the atmosphere and head north over west Texas and western Oklahoma. Because of these conditions, ground surface movement of pollen along with entrainment will be reduced and little is expected to move downwind during these rainy conditions.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow*** moderate conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Today and tomorrow sky conditions will be deteriorating as rain moves through the area. Temperatures will be in the 60’s in most areas today but approaching stormy conditions will not allow those temperatures to remain for long. Winds will be moderate today and tomorrow from the northeast. Tomorrows temperatures will strive to get out of the 40’s into the low 50’s in most areas. The surface air continues to appear relatively dense and stable creating poor conditions for entrainment and travel. Overnight the region will see temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s, cooling significantly tomorrow night. The trees are in their most active portion of their pollination season. However, the overall poor conditions should retard pollen release along with entrainment for any long distance travel. This does not mean that some pollen will not be encountered within the growing populations where release is ongoing. Marginal pollen release conditions are expected to occur today prior to the rains moving in. For these reasons we are calling for a Moderate threat today and low threat tomorrow. The increased humidity and especially any precipitation will clear the air of airborne particles in those areas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page