The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 9 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sunday, January 09 – TX/OK: The region today will start improving from last night’s rain with cold conditions and snow continuing in northern Texas and across Oklahoma. Rain showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning but start to taper off with cool air and cloudy skies remaining. In Oklahoma, a wintery mix of rain and snow will occur this morning with the temperatures in the 20’s and 30’s. Winds will be from the east at low to moderate levels. The chance of precipitation will continue into tonight with temperatures remaining much the same. Tomorrow a chance of continued snow showers or frozen drizzle remains in the forecast, with temperatures in the 30’s and winds from the southeast. Tomorrow night a chance of snow remains with very cold temperatures in the mid-teens. Winds will be primarily from the north at moderate levels. In Texas, the temperatures will be warmer today with most areas in the 40’s and 50’s, rain will begin to diminish. However, the edge communities will see showers continuing through this morning. Winds will be from the east to north-east as this system moves away into eastern Texas. Temperatures will be in the 40’s to upper 50’s across the Edwards Plateau and much cooler northward towards Oklahoma. Dallas is expected to get snow today. Tonight temperatures will be in the 30’s with a moderate northeasterly breeze and cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Tomorrow the region will begin to warm with high temperatures getting into the upper 50’s and fog developing early, especially in the communities surrounding the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. In most regions winds will be light and from a more southerly direction. The western areas of the Edwards Plateau will have winds from the west and southwest whereas the eastern portion of the Plateau will still be under southeast to northeast flow. Tomorrow night temperatures drop to the 20’s with partly cloudy skies to the west and the low 30’s with mostly cloudy skies to the east. Winds will return to a northeasterly direction and be moderate and breezy across the area.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move initially northwest on southeastly winds, and are relatively buoyant reaching high levels in the atmosphere before being turn southwards by the incursion of cold air from the north. Conditions where the trees grow in southern Oklahoma will be in the 30s today with a 60% chance of precipitation. Those conditions will continue tonight with low temperatures expected to be in the upper 20’s. Winds will maintain themselves from the east at moderate conditions. Tomorrow snow and frozen drizzle are expected in the morning with highs only reaching the upper 30’s. A 20% chance of snow is forecast for Monday night with temperatures falling into the teens and winds switching from the previous easterly direction to coming out of the north.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Cloudy conditions with precipitation and a cold atmosphere with the chance of rain, snow, and freezing drizzle will occur today and tomorrow. These conditions will present poor conditions for pollen release as well as any kind of entrainment and travel in the wind. Conditions for pollination will have to wait for the frigid conditions to pass and warmer conditions to take over.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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