The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 9 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sunday, January 09 – TX/OK: The region today will start improving from last night’s rain with cold conditions and snow continuing in northern Texas and across Oklahoma. Rain showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning but start to taper off with cool air and cloudy skies remaining. In Oklahoma, a wintery mix of rain and snow will occur this morning with the temperatures in the 20’s and 30’s. Winds will be from the east at low to moderate levels. The chance of precipitation will continue into tonight with temperatures remaining much the same. Tomorrow a chance of continued snow showers or frozen drizzle remains in the forecast, with temperatures in the 30’s and winds from the southeast. Tomorrow night a chance of snow remains with very cold temperatures in the mid-teens. Winds will be primarily from the north at moderate levels. In Texas, the temperatures will be warmer today with most areas in the 40’s and 50’s, rain will begin to diminish. However, the edge communities will see showers continuing through this morning. Winds will be from the east to north-east as this system moves away into eastern Texas. Temperatures will be in the 40’s to upper 50’s across the Edwards Plateau and much cooler northward towards Oklahoma. Dallas is expected to get snow today. Tonight temperatures will be in the 30’s with a moderate northeasterly breeze and cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Tomorrow the region will begin to warm with high temperatures getting into the upper 50’s and fog developing early, especially in the communities surrounding the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. In most regions winds will be light and from a more southerly direction. The western areas of the Edwards Plateau will have winds from the west and southwest whereas the eastern portion of the Plateau will still be under southeast to northeast flow. Tomorrow night temperatures drop to the 20’s with partly cloudy skies to the west and the low 30’s with mostly cloudy skies to the east. Winds will return to a northeasterly direction and be moderate and breezy across the area.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau are split with the development of stormy conditions last night. To the east most of the area is still influenced by northeasterly breezes that will be moderate and move the atmosphere towards the south, whereas on the western side of the plateau southerly breezes move the atmosphere towards the north. Across the region this will cause the trajectories to rotate with the eventual incursion of an overall northerly push of cold air tomorrow afternoon and evening. Today, precipitation will be tapering off as the system that moved through last night continues to head towards the east. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid-50’s and conditions should be relatively wet from last night’s precipitation. Cold conditions will continue in north Texas as Dallas continues to have a chance of snow into this evening. Tonight temperatures will be in the 30’s across the region with winds from the northeast to southeast from the eastern Plateau heading west. Tomorrow will continue to be cloudy but temperatures will begin to warm on southerly breezes over the Plateau. The region will begin to dry. Tomorrow night skies will begin and temperatures will be around freezing and below as cold air moves in from the north.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow*** Poor conditions for pollen release today andmoderate conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and moderate conditions tomorrow. Today and tomorrow conditions will be recovering from the rain that moved through the area. Temperatures will be in the mid to low 50’s today and upper 50’s tomorrow. The rain last night will continue into this morning especially along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. To the west mostly cloudy conditions will occur. Winds will be swirling over Texas as the system moves through the state and heads east, therefore trajectories to the west will move northwards whereas those to the east will move southward. Wet conditions and cool temperatures will create poor conditions for pollen release as well as entrainment and travel today. Cold conditions will take over tonight with moderate winds. Tomorrow conditions will improve, especially if drying conditions advance along with moderate winds in most regions. Tomorrow night will return to cold conditions with many areas below freezing. The trees are in their most active portion of their pollination season. The overall poor conditions should retard pollen release along with entrainment for any long distance travel today. However, tomorrow marginal pollen release conditions are expected to occur although it might be limited as the conditions develop. For these reasons we are calling for a low threat today and moderate threat tomorrow. The increased humidity and especially any precipitation last night and today will clear the air of airborne particles throughout the area

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page