The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 10 January 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Monday, January 10 – TX/OK: The region today will begin to dry out as the wet weather moves off to the east. Behind the cold wet weather, however, there will be a day of seasonal temperatures and then cold air will move in from the north plunging daytime temperatures tomorrow into the 30’s for high temperatures. In Oklahoma this morning a wintery mix of rain and snow will occur again today with snow expected in Oklahoma City and the chance of freezing drizzle south along the border with Texas. Skies will be cloudy and high temperatures will stay in the 30’s. Winds will be from the east at light to moderate levels. Tonight there will be a 20% chance of snow with temperatures in the mid- to low teens. Winds will be from the north to northwest at moderate levels. Those northerly breezes will bring cold air in across the region with tomorrow’s high temperatures expected in the 20’s to low 30’s and winds picking up to moderate conditions, reaching upwards of 20 miles per hour in some locations. Tomorrow night will continue to be cold with low temperatures expected in the single digits. In Texas, warmer conditions will prevail today with this morning seeing a significant chance of fog in most areas. On the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau some sun will peak out between the clouds this morning but clouds will build over the afternoon and into the evening. Temperatures today are expected to be in the 50’s and lower 60’s in most areas. Winds will predominate in this region from the east moving colder air from the system that recently passed over Texas back toward the state. On the western side of the Edwards Plateau mixed cloud cover will predominate. Winds will be from the southwest and west bringing slightly warmer and dry conditions to the area. Overnight the east-west dichotomy will remain with partly cloudy conditions west and temperatures in the low to mid 20’s whereas to the east partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will occur and temperatures will be in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s. Winds across the region will shift, coming from the north with cold air. On Tuesday, this shift in the winds will be seen with high temperatures barely getting into the 40’s. Sky conditions will be much more broken up with sunny conditions to partly cloudy conditions across the area. Winds will be moderate to strong from the north. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will return with temperatures well into the teens in most areas. Winds will calm but remain primarily from a north to northeast direction.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move south as cold air from the north moves into the region. Conditions where the trees grow in southern Oklahoma will be in the 30s today with a chance of frozen drizzle. Those conditions will continue tonight with low temperatures expected to be in the mid-teens and a 20% chance of snow. Winds will begin from east at moderate to light conditions, but switch overnight coming from the north to northwest. Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions with moderate to strong winds from the north and high temperatures in the mid-30’s near the border and only in the 20’s further north. Tomorrow night will see low temperatures into the teens and single digits.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Cloudy conditions with precipitation and a cold atmosphere with the chance of snow in central Oklahoma, and freezing drizzle along the border with Texas will occur today. Tomorrow conditions remain cold with partly cloudy skies and moderate to light winds from the north. These conditions will present poor conditions for pollen release as well as any kind of entrainment and travel in the wind. Conditions for pollination will have to wait for the frigid conditions to pass and warmer conditions to re-establish themselves.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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