The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 10 January 2011
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Monday, January 10 – TX/OK:
The region today will begin to dry out as the wet weather moves off to the east. Behind the cold wet weather, however,
there will be a day of seasonal temperatures and then cold air will move in from the north plunging daytime temperatures
tomorrow into the 30’s for high temperatures. In Oklahoma this morning a wintery mix of rain and snow will occur
again today with snow expected in Oklahoma City and the chance of freezing drizzle south along the border with
Texas. Skies will be cloudy and high temperatures will stay in the 30’s. Winds will be from the east at light
to moderate levels. Tonight there will be a 20% chance of snow with temperatures in the mid- to low teens. Winds
will be from the north to northwest at moderate levels. Those northerly breezes will bring cold air in across
the region with tomorrow’s high temperatures expected in the 20’s to low 30’s and winds picking up to moderate
conditions, reaching upwards of 20 miles per hour in some locations. Tomorrow night will continue to be cold with
low temperatures expected in the single digits. In Texas, warmer conditions will prevail today with this morning
seeing a significant chance of fog in most areas. On the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau some sun will peak
out between the clouds this morning but clouds will build over the afternoon and into the evening. Temperatures
today are expected to be in the 50’s and lower 60’s in most areas. Winds will predominate in this region from
the east moving colder air from the system that recently passed over Texas back toward the state. On the western
side of the Edwards Plateau mixed cloud cover will predominate. Winds will be from the southwest and west bringing
slightly warmer and dry conditions to the area. Overnight the east-west dichotomy will remain with partly cloudy
conditions west and temperatures in the low to mid 20’s whereas to the east partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies
will occur and temperatures will be in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s. Winds across the region will shift, coming
from the north with cold air. On Tuesday, this shift in the winds will be seen with high temperatures barely getting
into the 40’s. Sky conditions will be much more broken up with sunny conditions to partly cloudy conditions across
the area. Winds will be moderate to strong from the north. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will return with
temperatures well into the teens in most areas. Winds will calm but remain primarily from a north to northeast
direction.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move south as cold air from the north
moves into the region. Conditions where the trees grow in southern Oklahoma will be in the 30s today with a chance
of frozen drizzle. Those conditions will continue tonight with low temperatures expected to be in the mid-teens
and a 20% chance of snow. Winds will begin from east at moderate to light conditions, but switch overnight coming
from the north to northwest. Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions with moderate to strong winds from the north and
high temperatures in the mid-30’s near the border and only in the 20’s further north. Tomorrow night will see
low temperatures into the teens and single digits.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for
pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and
tomorrow. Cloudy conditions with precipitation and a cold atmosphere with the chance of snow in central Oklahoma,
and freezing drizzle along the border with Texas will occur today. Tomorrow conditions remain cold with partly
cloudy skies and moderate to light winds from the north. These conditions will present poor conditions for pollen
release as well as any kind of entrainment and travel in the wind. Conditions for pollination will have to wait
for the frigid conditions to pass and warmer conditions to re-establish themselves.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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