The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 10 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, January 10 – TX/OK: The region today will begin to dry out as the wet weather moves off to the east. Behind the cold wet weather, however, there will be a day of seasonal temperatures and then cold air will move in from the north plunging daytime temperatures tomorrow into the 30’s for high temperatures. In Oklahoma this morning a wintery mix of rain and snow will occur again today with snow expected in Oklahoma City and the chance of freezing drizzle south along the border with Texas. Skies will be cloudy and high temperatures will stay in the 30’s. Winds will be from the east at light to moderate levels. Tonight there will be a 20% chance of snow with temperatures in the mid- to low teens. Winds will be from the north to northwest at moderate levels. Those northerly breezes will bring cold air in across the region with tomorrow’s high temperatures expected in the 20’s to low 30’s and winds picking up to moderate conditions, reaching upwards of 20 miles per hour in some locations. Tomorrow night will continue to be cold with low temperatures expected in the single digits. In Texas, warmer conditions will prevail today with this morning seeing a significant chance of fog in most areas. On the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau some sun will peak out between the clouds this morning but clouds will build over the afternoon and into the evening. Temperatures today are expected to be in the 50’s and lower 60’s in most areas. Winds will predominate in this region from the east moving colder air from the system that recently passed over Texas back toward the state. On the western side of the Edwards Plateau mixed cloud cover will predominate. Winds will be from the southwest and west bringing slightly warmer and dry conditions to the area. Overnight the east-west dichotomy will remain with partly cloudy conditions west and temperatures in the low to mid 20’s whereas to the east partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will occur and temperatures will be in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s. Winds across the region will shift, coming from the north with cold air. On Tuesday, this shift in the winds will be seen with high temperatures barely getting into the 40’s. Sky conditions will be much more broken up with sunny conditions to partly cloudy conditions across the area. Winds will be moderate to strong from the north. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will return with temperatures well into the teens in most areas. Winds will calm but remain primarily from a north to northeast direction.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau are mixed with the day beginning with easterly winds on the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and southwesterly and westerly’s out to the west. Over the next 48 hours, however winds will move predominantly to the south over southern Texas as cold air moves in from the north. Temperatures today will be cool but seasonal with most many areas remaining in the 50’s for their high. The regions to the west will move into the low 60’s. Tonight colder air infiltrates into the region and low temperatures will be below freezing and mostly in the 20’s. The cold air will continue tomorrow although skies will lighten with partly cloudy to sunny conditions. High temperatures will, however, only be in the 30’s in most places with the Edwards Plateau edge communities creeping over the 40 degree mark. Winds will be moderate to strong and from the north to northeast throughout the day and overnight. Tomorrow night temperatures will fall well below freezing into the low teens and low twenties.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow*** Moderate conditions for pollen release today andModerate conditions tomorrow. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and moderate conditions tomorrow. Today conditions will be recovering from the rain that moved through the area. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50’s today then become much colder as cold air moves in from the north for tonight and tomorrow. The rain over the last couple of days will result in foggy conditions this morning, but temperatures will rise into the 50’s and just reach the 60’s in the more southern locations. Tomorrow and tomorrow night will see dominant winds from the north and cold conditions with Tuesday’s highs expected to barely reach 40 degrees. Tuesday night temperatures will be entrenched in the 20’s and teens. Damp conditions and cooler temperatures will create moderate conditions for pollen release today although the atmosphere is buoyant and will create good conditions for entrainment and travel. Cold conditions will take over tonight with moderate winds from the north for tomorrow. If drying conditions advance along with moderate winds in most regions today some significant pollen release can be expected. This is especially true in the communities that have healthy populations of the trees within the urban environment. For these reasons we have a moderate threat today, but high to very high levels may be present within the populations themselves especially in the southern areas of the trees distribution. Tomorrow will return to cold conditions with most areas below freezing overnight and barely getting into the 40’s on Tuesday. The trees are in their most active portion of their pollination season. The overall cold conditions Monday night and Tuesday should retard pollen release. We have historically found a significant drop off in pollen levels at these temperatures. For these reasons we are calling for a moderate threat today and low threat tomorrow. Today will be the best chance for significant pollen release but then cold conditions will reduce the chance tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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