The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 11 January 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 11 – TX/OK: The region today will be cold as a push of cold air from the north takes over. Temperatures today from Oklahoma to south Texas will feel the grip of the cold air. In Oklahoma this morning sunny skies will prevail but with temperatures in the 20’s in the central portion of the state to 30’s southward along the border. Winds will be moderate to gusty in some areas from the north and northwest. Tonight partly cloudy skies will return with the lows in the low teens to single digits. Winds will remain from the north but lighten to light and variable conditions. Tomorrow the partly cloudy skies will remain with high temperatures only reaching the upper 20’s to mid-30’s in central and southern portions of the state. Tomorrow night will be clear with light a variable winds and temperatures in the teens. In Texas, partly cloudy conditions will prevail over the Edwards Plateau with sunny and mostly sunny skies to the east in the edge communities. High temperatures will mostly be in the 30’s with some areas along the edge, especially the southern urban areas, just making it into the 40’s. Winds will be moderate from the northeast with some gusts at greater strength. Tonight partly cloudy conditions move in with areas along the edge of the plateau becoming mostly cloudy. Temperatures will be well below freezing in all communities with tees to the west and mid to lower 20’s in the edge communities. Winds will maintain themselves from the north to northeast at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow will see the return of clear skies along with partly cloudy conditions, especially to the west. High temperatures will again be stationed in the 30’s with some of the southernmost communities barely getting into the 40’s. Winds will be light to moderate from the east and northeast. Tomorrow night the skies will clear and temperatures will be near freezing and below across the region.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move south as cold air from the north moves through the region. Conditions where the trees grow in southern Oklahoma will be in the mid-30s today under sunny skies. Those conditions will continue tonight with low temperatures expected to be in the low-teens to single digits. Winds will continue from north and northwest at moderate to light conditions to add to the chill. Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions with light and variable winds from the north and high temperatures in the mid-30’s near the border and only the upper 20’s further north. Tomorrow night will see low temperatures into the teens once again.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Sunny skies but frigid conditions will occur across Oklahoma and Texas for the next couple of days. Tomorrow conditions remain cold with partly cloudy skies and light winds from the north. These conditions will present poor conditions for pollen release as well as any kind of entrainment and travel in the wind. Conditions for pollination will have to wait for the frigid conditions to pass and warmer conditions to re-establish themselves.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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