The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 12 January 2011
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 12 – TX/OK:
The region today will be cold once again from the push of cold northern air that occurred earlier in the week.
Temperatures today from Oklahoma to south Texas will feel high temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Tomorrow a change
in the winds will start to warm the region back into seasonal conditions. In Oklahoma this morning partly cloudy
skies will prevail with temperatures in the mid- 20s in the central portion of the state to the low to mid- 30s
southward along the border. Winds will be moderate from the north and northeast but decreasing to light and variable
during the day. Tonight partly cloudy skies return with the lows in the mid-teens. Winds will remain from the
north but lighten to light and variable conditions. Tomorrow, sunny skies return with high temperatures only reaching
towards 40 in central and southern portions of the state. Tomorrow night will be partly cloudy with light a variable
winds and temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. In Texas, cloudy conditions will prevail around the eastern edge
of the Edwards Plateau with partly cloudy skies over the plateau and to the west. In the areas surrounding the
Edwards Plateau high temperatures will mostly be in the mid- 40s. Winds will be moderate from the northeast.
Tonight cloudy conditions return across the region. Temperatures will be below freezing in all communities with
temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Winds will maintain themselves from the north to northeast at light to moderate
levels across most of the area. However, to the west a southeasterly breeze will arrive overnight as warmer winds
begin to work into the region for tomorrow. In the morning cloudy skies will predominate but a general shift towards
a southerly wind will bring warmer temperatures to the area. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to near
50 across much of the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Winds will be from the south in the
western areas and from the east along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be moderate to light
during the day falling to light conditions tomorrow night and originating in the south. Low temperatures will
straddle the freezing mark with most areas in the lower 30s and upper 20s.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains initially move south as on the cold
air from the north that has dominated the couple of days’ worth of weather. The trajectories then turn and move
almost due north as the winds shift to a southerly flow. Conditions where the trees grow in southern Oklahoma
will be in the mid-30s today under partly cloudy skies. Those conditions will continue tonight with low temperatures
expected to be in the teens. Winds will continue to be light and variable moving towards a southeasterly direction
towards morning. Tomorrow sunny conditions with moderate winds from the southeast will start to warm the area
with high temperatures expected in the low 40’s. Tomorrow night will see low temperatures below freezing once
again under partly cloudy skies.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for
pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and
tomorrow. Sunny skies but frigid conditions will occur across Oklahoma for the next couple of days. Today conditions
remain cold with partly cloudy skies and light winds from the north. These conditions will present poor conditions
for pollen release as well as any kind of entrainment and travel in the wind. Tomorrow conditions begin to improve
on warmer air from the south to southeast moving over the area, but the warming will begin slowly and temperatures
are not expected to get much above the 40 degree mark. Conditions for pollination will have to wait for the frigid
conditions to pass and warmer conditions to re-establish themselves.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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