The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 12 January 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 12 – TX/OK: The region today will be cold once again from the push of cold northern air that occurred earlier in the week. Temperatures today from Oklahoma to south Texas will feel high temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Tomorrow a change in the winds will start to warm the region back into seasonal conditions. In Oklahoma this morning partly cloudy skies will prevail with temperatures in the mid- 20s in the central portion of the state to the low to mid- 30s southward along the border. Winds will be moderate from the north and northeast but decreasing to light and variable during the day. Tonight partly cloudy skies return with the lows in the mid-teens. Winds will remain from the north but lighten to light and variable conditions. Tomorrow, sunny skies return with high temperatures only reaching towards 40 in central and southern portions of the state. Tomorrow night will be partly cloudy with light a variable winds and temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. In Texas, cloudy conditions will prevail around the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau with partly cloudy skies over the plateau and to the west. In the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau high temperatures will mostly be in the mid- 40s. Winds will be moderate from the northeast. Tonight cloudy conditions return across the region. Temperatures will be below freezing in all communities with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Winds will maintain themselves from the north to northeast at light to moderate levels across most of the area. However, to the west a southeasterly breeze will arrive overnight as warmer winds begin to work into the region for tomorrow. In the morning cloudy skies will predominate but a general shift towards a southerly wind will bring warmer temperatures to the area. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to near 50 across much of the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Winds will be from the south in the western areas and from the east along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be moderate to light during the day falling to light conditions tomorrow night and originating in the south. Low temperatures will straddle the freezing mark with most areas in the lower 30s and upper 20s.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains initially move south as on the cold air from the north that has dominated the couple of days’ worth of weather. The trajectories then turn and move almost due north as the winds shift to a southerly flow. Conditions where the trees grow in southern Oklahoma will be in the mid-30s today under partly cloudy skies. Those conditions will continue tonight with low temperatures expected to be in the teens. Winds will continue to be light and variable moving towards a southeasterly direction towards morning. Tomorrow sunny conditions with moderate winds from the southeast will start to warm the area with high temperatures expected in the low 40’s. Tomorrow night will see low temperatures below freezing once again under partly cloudy skies.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Sunny skies but frigid conditions will occur across Oklahoma for the next couple of days. Today conditions remain cold with partly cloudy skies and light winds from the north. These conditions will present poor conditions for pollen release as well as any kind of entrainment and travel in the wind. Tomorrow conditions begin to improve on warmer air from the south to southeast moving over the area, but the warming will begin slowly and temperatures are not expected to get much above the 40 degree mark. Conditions for pollination will have to wait for the frigid conditions to pass and warmer conditions to re-establish themselves.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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