The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 13 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 13 – TX/OK: The region today will remain cold from the entrenched cold northern air in the region. High temperatures today from Oklahoma to south Texas will be in the 40’s. Tomorrow a change in the winds will continue to warm the region back into seasonal conditions, although another night of temperatures flirting with the freezing mark will occur Thursday night. In Oklahoma this morning sunny skies will prevail with temperatures in the mid- 40’s in the central portion of the state to the low to mid- 40’s southward along the border. Winds will be moderate from the south, decreasing to light and variable winds from the south this afternoon and tonight. Tonight partly cloudy skies return with the lows in the mid- to lower 20’s from Oklahoma City towards the border with Texas. Tomorrow Oklahoma will have partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid 40’s and light winds from the south around 10 miles per hour. The partly cloudy skies will remain tomorrow night with low temperatures in the mid- 20’s to mid-30’s. In Texas, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will occur with temperatures in the 40’s across the area. Along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau winds will start from the northeast and shift during the day to a more southeasterly and southern direction and be light to moderate in strength. On the western side of the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the south at light to moderate conditions. Tonight temperatures will return below the freezing level in most areas under cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. The areas along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau will mostly stay above the freezing mark. Winds will be from the south and southeast at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow temperatures will warm under cloudy skies with high’s in most areas getting into the mid 50’s. Winds will be moderate and from the south. Tomorrow night a chance of rain occurs in most areas once again with a 20% chance on the Edwards Plateau and a 30% chance in the communities surrounding the plateau. Temperatures overnight will stay in the mid- to upper-30’s and low 40’s. Winds will continue from the south on the Edwards Plateau especially in the west. In the edge communities the winds will be from the east.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains initially move northward on southerly winds. The trajectories then turn towards the east north of Oklahoma as they get caught in weather conditions in the central Plains and beyond. The region to the north remains cold with high temperatures in the high 30’s and low 40’s. Conditions where the trees grow in southern Oklahoma will be in the mid-40s today as the high under sunny skies. Winds will start light and variable but increase through the day to moderate conditions from the south. Tonight partly cloudy skies will build and temperatures will dip into the mid-20’s with winds returning to light and variable conditions. Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions will remain with moderate to light winds from the south slacking to light and variable conditions. High Temperatures will be in the mid 40’s today and tomorrow. Tomorrow night will see a repeat of tonight with temperatures in the mid-20s and light and variable conditions.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Sunny skies will occur today but high temperatures will just barely get into the range that we expect trees to release pollen. Sunny skies today may help with localized release from the sunny and warmer sides of some trees. Winds will be moderate today allowing any pollen released to become entrained within the atmosphere and therefore travel northward may occur. For these reasons there is a moderate threat today. Tomorrow very similar conditions will exist but the skies will be partly cloudy and so less surface warming should occur. In addition winds are predicted to be a bit calmer than today. Because of this we are putting a Low threat for tomorrow for the Oklahoma population. Conditions are much better to the south in Texas and the trajectories from those areas pass over the top of Oklahoma so while the southern Oklahoma pollen dispersal is marginal see the TEXAS forecast for potential high levels of pollen across Oklahoma.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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