The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

High

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 13 January 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Thursday, January 13 – TX/OK: The region today will remain cold from the entrenched cold northern air in the region. High temperatures today from Oklahoma to south Texas will be in the 40’s. Tomorrow a change in the winds will continue to warm the region back into seasonal conditions, although another night of temperatures flirting with the freezing mark will occur Thursday night. In Oklahoma this morning sunny skies will prevail with temperatures in the mid- 40’s in the central portion of the state to the low to mid- 40’s southward along the border. Winds will be moderate from the south, decreasing to light and variable winds from the south this afternoon and tonight. Tonight partly cloudy skies return with the lows in the mid- to lower 20’s from Oklahoma City towards the border with Texas. Tomorrow Oklahoma will have partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid 40’s and light winds from the south around 10 miles per hour. The partly cloudy skies will remain tomorrow night with low temperatures in the mid- 20’s to mid-30’s. In Texas, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will occur with temperatures in the 40’s across the area. Along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau winds will start from the northeast and shift during the day to a more southeasterly and southern direction and be light to moderate in strength. On the western side of the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the south at light to moderate conditions. Tonight temperatures will return below the freezing level in most areas under cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. The areas along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau will mostly stay above the freezing mark. Winds will be from the south and southeast at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow temperatures will warm under cloudy skies with high’s in most areas getting into the mid 50’s. Winds will be moderate and from the south. Tomorrow night a chance of rain occurs in most areas once again with a 20% chance on the Edwards Plateau and a 30% chance in the communities surrounding the plateau. Temperatures overnight will stay in the mid- to upper-30’s and low 40’s. Winds will continue from the south on the Edwards Plateau especially in the west. In the edge communities the winds will be from the east.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move due north on southerly winds from the Edwards Plateau today. High temperatures across the region will be in the mid- to upper- 40’s with moderate winds from the south. The southern and eastern communities will start the day with northeasterly breezes but those will turn during the day and begin the evening hours also from the south. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy across the southern and central region with partly sunny skies in the Dallas/Fort Worth area and clear skies northward in Oklahoma. Cloudy skies will be maintained overnight as temperatures dip into the low 30’s along the Edwards Plateau’s edge and into the mid 20’s across the central portion of Texas. Tomorrow, cloudy skies but warmer conditions with high temperatures in the mid-50’s. Winds will be moderate and from the south. Towards the evening and overnight a 20% top 30% chance of rain once again enters the forecast. Overnight temperatures tomorrow night will remain in the upper 30’s and low 40’s.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow*** good conditions for pollen release today and very good conditions tomorrow. goodconditions for entrainment and transport exist today and very good conditions tomorrow. Today’s conditions will be driven by the warming of the region that will move the last of the cold air out of the region. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper- 40’s in most areas with light to moderate winds, although skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy across the Edwards Plateau and in surrounding communities. Historically, we have found a significant reduction in pollen entrained in the atmosphere at temperatures less than the mid- to upper 40’s. However, the trees should be near their peak of release and so pollination is expected to occur today, especially in urban areas that traditionally are warmer from the “Urban Heat Island” effect. If so, the atmosphere is moderately suited, so entrainment and travel will occur. This will mean that urban areas are expected to have high pollen levels today, whereas the trees in more natural areas may be somewhat constrained by the temperature. Tomorrow and tomorrow night will be warmer but there will be an increasing chance of precipitation tomorrow night. Friday’s highs are expected to reach into the mid 50 degrees range which will be very suitable for pollen release. Winds will be light to moderate from the south across much of the Edwards Plateau. Along the eastern side and in the edge communities winds will begin from the northeast but turn to a southerly flow during the day. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen northward into Oklahoma over the next 48 hours. High and very high pollen conditions should occur throughout the northern Texas area as well as across Oklahoma. Tomorrow, temperatures will warm and conditions will be even better. For these reasons we are calling for only a severe threat today and tomorrow with conditions becoming much more conducive for heavy pollination tomorrow.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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