The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 14 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 14 – TX/OK: The region today will be warming out of the previous cold snap but with gaining humidity and the chance of precipitation tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night, especially to the south across central Texas. In Oklahoma, today will begin with partly cloudy skies and light winds from the south. High temperatures will be in the mid-40’s in central Oklahoma and the upper 40’s along the border with Texas where the Junipers grow. Tonight’s lows will be in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s with winds calming to light and variable conditions. Tomorrow the region will reach into the lower 50’s with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy conditions will occur with the low’s in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s. Winds will be moderate from the southeast over the juniper population with a 20% chance of precipitation. In Texas today, cloudy conditions and increasing humidity will occur across most of the Edwards Plateau region. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40’s to the east and into the low to mid-50s to the west. The communities along the eastern edge of the Plateau can expect drizzle and foggy conditions this morning. Winds will be light to begin the day with increasing strength during the afternoon in the central Plateau region and to the west. Tonight will be cloudy with an increasing chance of rain across the region. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30’s across the Plateau and in the mid to upper 40’s along the eastern Edwards Plateau edge. Winds will be light to moderate from the east and southeast. A 20% to 30% chance of precipitation exists in most areas of the Edwards Plateau tonight. Tomorrow cloudy skies remain with a 20% to 40% chance of precipitation and warmer conditions. Most areas will be firmly in the 50’s and above with the communities along the Edwards Plateau edge reaching the upper 50’s and low 60’s. Winds will be light and variable across the region. Tomorrow night will remain cloudy and low temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s to the west and 40’s to 50’s to the east along the edge of the Edwards Plateau. The communities along the eastern edge have a 60% chance of precipitation overnight whereas there is a declining chance further west. Winds will be light and primarily from the southeast.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains initially move northward on southerly winds. The trajectories then turn towards the east north of Oklahoma as they get caught in weather conditions in the central Plains and beyond. The region to the north remains cold with high temperatures in the high 40’s. Conditions where the trees grow in southern Oklahoma will be in the upper-40s today under partly cloudy skies. Winds will start light and variable but increase through the day to moderate conditions from the south. Tonight partly cloudy skies will be maintained and temperatures will dip into the low 30’s with winds returning to light and variable conditions. Tomorrow mostly cloudy conditions will remain with light and variable winds from the south. High Temperatures will be in the low 50’s. Tomorrow night will see a repeat of tonight but with temperatures a bit warmer and in the mid- 30s. Light and variable wind conditions will remain.


OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Fair conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport exist today. Partly cloudy skies will occur today but high temperatures will just barely get to the temperature range that we expect trees to release pollen. Winds will be light today making any pollen release entrainment marginal and therefore travel northward may occur but will be limited. For these reasons there is a moderate threat today. Tomorrow similar conditions will exist with partly cloudy skies but warmer temperatures. Winds will remain light and variable on both days. We are stating a Moderate threat for today and tomorrow for the Oklahoma population.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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