The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 15 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 15 – TX/OK: The region today will be seasonal today with 40s and 50s in most areas although across Texas rain will be developing especially along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Similar conditions will continue tomorrow as well. In Oklahoma clear to partly cloudy skies with some morning fog will occur. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s in the central portion of the state and in the mid-50s along the border with Texas where the juniper trees grow. Winds will be light and variable in the area. Tonight similar conditions will exist but with the addition of light rain and showers throughout the area. There is a 20% chance of precipitation for the region. Tomorrow the chance of rain increases to 30% during the day. Tomorrow night the moisture begins to clear out and the chance of rain begins to diminish. Tomorrow’s high temperatures will only be in the mid 40s along the border. Overnight temperatures will drop into the low 30s. Winds will remain light and variable throughout the entire forecast period. In Texas, Cloudy conditions will occur across the entire region today, tonight and tomorrow. This morning there is a significant chance of rain along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. The rain will spread tonight and into tomorrow to most areas across the plateau. Tomorrow night conditions begin to clear up for the beginning of the week. Today skies will be cloudy and temperatures will be in the lower to mid-50s. Winds will be from the north to northeast at light to moderate levels. Tonight low temperatures will be mostly in the 40s and 50s. Areas to the far west may drop into the upper 30s. Winds for the most part will continue from the northeast at moderate levels. Tomorrow temperatures will warm a bit with most areas exceeding today’s high temperatures. However, rain and higher humidity will occur across the region. Winds will be moderate and from the north. Tomorrow night skies begin to clear. The chance of precipitation will only occur on the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be in the 30s and 40s from west to east and winds will remain from the north at low to moderate conditions.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains initially move northward on southerly winds. The trajectories then turn towards the east portion of Oklahoma. The region to the north remains cold with high temperatures in the upper 40s. Conditions where the trees grow in southern Oklahoma will be in the mid-50s today under mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be light and variable for most of the forecast period. Tonight temperatures will be below freezing north and in the mid-30s across the border region. There will be a 20% chance of precipitation with light rain and showers. Winds will be light and variable. Tomorrow the chance of rain increases with high temperatures cooling into the 40s. Winds will remain light and variable. Tomorrow night temperatures will cool into the low 30s and the chance of precipitation will begin to decline as the region begins to dry out.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today and tomorrow. Cloudy skies will occur today with high temperatures just at the level that we expect trees to release pollen. Winds will be light and variable today making any pollen release entrainment marginal and therefore travel northward may occur but will be limited. For these reasons there is a moderate threat today. Tomorrow conditions will deteriorate as higher humidity and the chance of rain moves in tonight. These conditions remain tomorrow with an increasing chance of precipitation. Throughout the forecast period winds will remain light and variable over the juniper tree population.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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