The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 15 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 15 – TX/OK: The region today will be seasonal today with 40s and 50s in most areas although across Texas rain will be developing especially along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Similar conditions will continue tomorrow as well. In Oklahoma clear to partly cloudy skies with some morning fog will occur. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s in the central portion of the state and in the mid-50s along the border with Texas where the juniper trees grow. Winds will be light and variable in the area. Tonight similar conditions will exist but with the addition of light rain and showers throughout the area. There is a 20% chance of precipitation for the region. Tomorrow that chance of rain increases to 30% during the day. Tomorrow night the moisture begins to clear out and the chance of rain begins to diminish. Tomorrow’s high temperatures will only be in the mid 40’s along the border. Overnight temperatures will drop into the low 30’s. Winds will remain light and variable throughout the entire forecast period. In Texas, cloudy conditions will occur across the entire region today, tonight and tomorrow. This morning there is a significant chance of rain along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. The rain will spread tonight and into tomorrow to most areas across the plateau. Tomorrow night conditions begin to clear up for the beginning of the week. Today skies will be cloudy and temperatures will be in the lower to mid-50s. Winds will be from the north to northeast at light to moderate levels. Tonight low temperatures will be mostly in the 40s and 50s. Areas to the far west may drop into the upper 30s. Winds for the most part will continue from the northeast at moderate levels. Tomorrow temperatures will warm a bit with most areas exceeding today’s high temperatures. However, rain and higher humidity will occur across the region. Winds will be moderate and from the north. Tomorrow night skies begin to clear. The chance of precipitation will only occur on the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures will be in the 30’s and 40’s from west to east and winds will remain from the north at low to moderate conditions.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move southwest on northeasterly winds coming across the Edwards Plateau today. High temperatures across the region will be in the mid- to upper- 50s with some communities to the west reaching into the low 60s. Moderate winds from the northeast will occur in most areas today. In the far west, winds will begin to switch to the southwest causing the trajectories to swirl back northward over western Texas. The eastern edge communities will see a significant chance of rain today and that moisture will continue to build tonight and tomorrow. We can expect to see drizzle and fog, showers and thunderstorms today, tonight, tomorrow and then finally beginning to clear tomorrow night. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s both days with moderate winds. Tonight and tomorrow night temperatures will be mostly be in the 30s and 40s.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat Today and Tomorrow*** Poor to moderate conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Fair conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and poor conditions tomorrow. Today’s outlook will be driven by warmer temperatures and also the incursion of moisture starting on the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau then moving westward. Temperatures in the mid-50s should be good for pollen release, but the increasing amount of humidity in the atmosphere and the building chance of rain should dampen any release. Throughout the forecast period, moderate winds will dominate and therefore any pollen entrained will move locally and not outside of the region. Light to moderate winds are expected and skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy across the region. The trees are near their peak of release and so pollination is expected to occur today, especially in sheltered urban areas that traditionally are warmer. However the atmosphere is in a poor condition for entrainment and travel. This will mean that urban areas may still be expected to have high pollen levels today in areas that are dry today. Tomorrow and tomorrow night will be warmer but there will be an increasing chance of precipitation across the entire region. Sunday’s highs are expected to reach into the 50s and 60s which will be suitable for pollen release, but the cloudy skies, high humidity, and chance of rain will be increasing. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen southwestward onto the Edwards Plateau and then swirl back northward over the western portion of the state. Tomorrow the increase in humidity and heightened chance of rain will dampen entrainment and travel although some release can be expected in drier areas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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