The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 16 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sunday, January 16 – TX/OK: The region today will be seasonal in the 40’s and 50’s north and the 60’s towards the south. In the eastern areas of Texas rain will be developing especially along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Conditions tomorrow will be improving as the rain system moves out of the region this afternoon and evening. In Oklahoma mostly cloudy skies with morning rain will occur. High temperatures will be in the lower 40’s across the central portion of the state and mid- 40’s along the border with Texas where the juniper trees grow. Winds will be light and variable in the area. Tonight similar mostly cloudy conditions will occur with a 20% chance of showers. Low temperatures will be in the low 30’s with light and variable winds in the area. Tomorrow mostly cloudy conditions will occur but temperatures will rebound into the lower 50’s. Winds will pick at 10 miles per hour from the south. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy conditions and low temperatures in the upper 30’s will occur. Winds will be light and variable. There is a 20% chance of precipitation tomorrow night for central Oklahoma which may leak southward into the area where the junipers grow. In Texas, cloudy conditions and a significant storm to the east will provide moisture across the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau as well as the edge communities. Temperatures will be in the upper 50’s and low 60’s. The edge communities from the Dallas/Ft. Worth to San Antonio will have a significant chance of precipitation today with showers and thunderstorms a potential during the day. Winds will be moderate from the north. The chance of rain will diminish during the day, dropping to about 20% tonight. Mostly cloudy conditions will continue, winds will remain from the north at moderate conditions, and temperatures will be in the lower 40’s and upper 30’s. In western Texas, the chance of precipitation is lower with fog this morning and a chance of a sporadic shower and thunderstorms. The moisture will be moving east so skies this afternoon and tonight will start mostly cloudy and move to partly cloudy. Tomorrow, partly sunny to clear skies will occur with temperatures warming into the 60’s reaching near 70 to the west. Winds will switch to the southwest at moderate toward strong levels. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will continue to the east and mostly clear skies to the west will occur as low temperatures dip into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s. Winds will continue at moderate levels from the southwest.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains initially move southwestward on northeasterly winds, but will turn towards the north as southwesterly winds move into the region. The trajectories move across the state and into the central Great Plains. The region to the north remains cold with high temperatures in the low 40’s for central Oklahoma. Conditions where the trees grow in southern Oklahoma will be in the mid-40s today under mostly cloudy skies, with higher humidity and the chance of precipitation. Winds will be light and variable for most of the forecast period. Tonight temperatures will be near freezing across the region. There is a 20% chance of precipitation with light rain and showers today and tonight. Winds will be light and variable. Tomorrow the chance of rain decreases with high temperatures warming into the mid- 50’s. Winds will build from the south at moderate levels tomorrow and then relaxing to light and variable conditions tomorrow night. Tomorrow night temperatures will cool into the mid- 30’s and the chance of precipitation will continue to decline as the region begins to dry out.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and good conditions tomorrow. poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today with good conditions tomorrow. Cloudy skies will occur today with high temperatures just at the mid- 40’s. There will be a 40% chance of rain today along with light and variable winds. These conditions will make any pollen release and entrainment marginal and therefore travel northward may occur but will be very limited. For these reasons there is a low threat today. Tomorrow conditions will be much better as the chance of precipitation leaves the area, conditions begin to dry and warmer conditions come in tomorrow on southwestern winds. Today the area will begin to dry with warmer southwestern winds moving in and a much greater chance of pollen release in the area tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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