The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 16 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sunday, January 16 – TX/OK: The region today will be seasonal in the 40’s and 50’s north and the 60’s towards the south. In the eastern areas of Texas rain will be developing especially along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Conditions tomorrow will be improving as the rain system moves out of the region this afternoon and evening. In Oklahoma mostly cloudy skies with morning rain will occur. High temperatures will be in the lower 40’s across the central portion of the state and mid- 40’s along the border with Texas where the juniper trees grow. Winds will be light and variable in the area. Tonight similar mostly cloudy conditions will occur with a 20% chance of showers. Low temperatures will be in the low 30’s with light and variable winds in the area. Tomorrow mostly cloudy conditions will occur but temperatures will rebound into the lower 50’s. Winds will pick at 10 miles per hour from the south. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy conditions and low temperatures in the upper 30’s will occur. Winds will be light and variable. There is a 20% chance of precipitation tomorrow night for central Oklahoma which may leak southward into the area where the junipers grow. In Texas, cloudy conditions and a significant storm to the east will provide moisture across the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau as well as the edge communities. Temperatures will be in the upper 50’s and low 60’s. The edge communities from the Dallas/Ft. Worth to San Antonio will have a significant chance of precipitation today with showers and thunderstorms a potential during the day. Winds will be moderate from the north. The chance of rain will diminish during the day, dropping to about 20% tonight. Mostly cloudy conditions will continue, winds will remain from the north at moderate conditions, and temperatures will be in the lower 40’s and upper 30’s. In western Texas, the chance of precipitation is lower with fog this morning and a chance of a sporadic shower and thunderstorms. The moisture will be moving east so skies this afternoon and tonight will start mostly cloudy and move to partly cloudy. Tomorrow, partly sunny to clear skies will occur with temperatures warming into the 60’s reaching near 70 to the west. Winds will switch to the southwest at moderate toward strong levels. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will continue to the east and mostly clear skies to the west will occur as low temperatures dip into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s. Winds will continue at moderate levels from the southwest.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move south on northerly winds coming across the Edwards Plateau today and tonight. High temperatures across the region will be in the mid- to upper- 50’s with some communities to the west reaching into the low 60’s. Moderate winds from the north will occur in most areas today. This morning there is a significant chance of rain as a significant weather system occurs along the eastern area of the Edwards Plateau and the surrounding communities. Fog, rain showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast. The chance of precipitation drops tonight as the system moves further east. In the far west today, winds will begin to switch to the southwest causing the trajectories to swirl back northward over western Texas. The switch of wind will continue across the Edwards Plateau with southwesterly winds dominating tomorrow. Along with the change in winds, high temperatures tomorrow will be in the 60’s and some areas reaching nearly 70. Southwesterly winds will continue at moderate levels. Tomorrow is expected to be partly to mostly sunny.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate today and High Threat Tomorrow*** moderate conditions for pollen release today and good conditions tomorrow. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and good conditions tomorrow. Today’s conditions will be driven by drying conditions and the potential of precipitation on the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures in the mid-50s to lower 60’s should be good for pollen release where the atmosphere is dry. To the east increasing amounts of humidity in the atmosphere and the building chance of rain should dampen any release. Therefore pollen may be common in the western areas but relatively scarce in the eastern communities. Much of the concentration will depend upon how much precipitation fell and how fast the areas are drying out. Today, moderate winds from the north will dominate and therefore any pollen entrained will move more locally and southward. Tomorrow winds will pick up and shift, coming out of the southwest. Today skies will reflect the moisture in the region and be cloudy to mostly cloudy. Tomorrow sunny skies to partly sunny skies will prevail. The trees are near their peak of release and so pollination is expected to occur as conditions improve, especially in sheltered urban areas that traditionally are warmer and will dry more quickly. However the atmosphere is in a poor condition for entrainment and travel today. This will mean that urban areas may still be expected to experience some pollen today. Tomorrow and tomorrow night will be warmer with sunny skies and warmer, stronger winds from the southwest. Monday’s highs are expected to reach into the 60’s and nearing 70 in some places which will be very suitable for pollen release. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen south then turn to the north on southwesterly winds tomorrow. Today poor conditions will be followed tomorrow by really good conditions.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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