The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 17 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 17 – TX/OK: The region today will be warming today with temperatures in the 50s north and south and skies clear to cloudy. Winds will be from the south and southwest at moderate conditions. In Oklahoma mostly cloudy skies this morning with a chance of rain, but temperatures will be in the 50s and winds will be moderate from the south. Overnight mostly cloudy skies will continue with an increasing chance of rain and light and variable winds. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 30s hovering around the freezing mark. Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions will return with a slight chance of rain. Temperatures will cool back into the 40s. Partly cloudy conditions remain tomorrow with low temperatures below freezing. In Texas, clouds will give way to mostly sunny conditions throughout much of the state today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be warming into the upper 60s and nearing the 70 mark, especially to the west. Winds will remain from the southwest today at moderate levels. Tonight, mostly cloudy to partly cloudy conditions will occur from east to west across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures overnight will be in the 30s to lower 40s across the region. Low temperatures around the edge of the Edwards Plateau will be warmer than in the more rural areas to the west. Tomorrow mostly sunny skies will return to the region but with similar temperatures. For example the edge communities will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds will switch back to a dominant northerly direction and remain at moderate levels. Tonight, mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies will return. Low temperatures will be in the mid to low 30’s in most areas. There could be some temperatures to the west that dip below the freezing mark.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains initially move northward on southerly winds, but then turn towards the south overnight as northerly winds move into the region. The trajectories move to the northeast and then back towards the southeast. Today, the region to the north will track areas further south and be in the mid 50s and will also experience the drop in temperatures tonight as cooler air moves southward with the change in the wind field. Conditions where the trees grow in southern Oklahoma will be in the low-50s today under mostly cloudy skies, with higher humidity and the chance of precipitation occurring overnight (30%). Winds will start at moderate levels from the south today but switch to a northerly flow late this afternoon and into the evening. Tomorrow there will be an overall cooling of 5 to 10 degrees. Winds will be from the north at moderate levels tomorrow and tomorrow night. Tomorrow night temperatures will cool into the mid- 30s under partly cloudy skies.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate to Low Threat Tomorrow *** moderate conditions for pollen release today and moderate to poor conditions tomorrow. Fair to good conditions for entrainment and transport exist today with good conditions tomorrow. Mostly cloudy skies will occur today with high temperatures in the Low- 50s and low to moderate winds from the south. These conditions will allow pollen release and entrainment. Travel will be towards the northeast on low to moderate winds from the south. For these reasons there is a moderate threat of pollen release, entrainment and travel today. Tonight there is a slight chance of rain (30%) in the area which suggests that humidity will remain high and mostly cloudy skies are expected. In addition winds tonight will drop to light and variable conditions. Tomorrow, Partly cloudy skies will occur with a continuation of a 20% chance of precipitation. Temperatures will be colder with high’s only expected to be in the mid 40 degree range. Tomorrow night temperatures will drop into the mid 30s.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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