The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 17 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, January 17 – TX/OK: The region today will be warming today with temperatures in the 50s north and south and skies clear to cloudy. Winds will be from the south and southwest at moderate conditions. In Oklahoma mostly cloudy skies this morning with a chance rain, but temperatures will be in the 50s and winds will be moderate from the south. Overnight mostly cloudy skies will continue with an increasing chance of rain and light and variable winds. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 30s hovering around the freezing mark. Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions will return with a slight chance of rain. Temperatures will cool back into the 40s. Partly cloudy conditions remain tomorrow with low temperatures below freezing. In Texas, clouds will give way to mostly sunny conditions throughout much of the state today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be warming into the upper 60s and nearing the 70 mark, especially to the west. Winds will remain from the southwest today at moderate levels. Tonight, mostly cloudy to partly cloudy conditions will occur from east to west across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures overnight will be in the 30s to lower 40s across the region. Low temperatures around the edge of the Edwards Plateau will be warmer than in the more rural areas to the west. Tomorrow mostly sunny skies will return to the region but with similar temperatures. For example the edge communities will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds will switch back to a dominant northerly direction and remain at moderate levels. Tonight, mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies will return. Low temperatures will be in the mid to low 30s in most areas. There could be some temperatures to the west that dip below the freezing mark.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move north on southerly winds coming across the Edwards Plateau today then turn back southward tonight as the winds change coming from the north tonight and tomorrow. High temperatures across the region will be in the mid- to upper- 60s with some communities to the west reaching into the low 70s. Moderate winds from the south will occur into the afternoon, then turn towards the south in the early evening, tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Skies across the Edwards Plateau will be clearing with mostly sunny conditions today and tomorrow. Overnight mostly cloudy to partly cloudy conditions will build but burn off during the daylight hours. Temperatures tomorrow will cool a bit and the warmest of the conditions which are expected to the west today will move eastward. Tomorrow the edge communities are expected to be in the upper 60s and low 70s. Winds will remain through the day and then late tomorrow night a shift towards easterly winds will begin


OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow*** very good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. good conditions for entrainment and moderate conditions for transport exist today and tomorrow. Today’s conditions will be driven by drying conditions sunny skies and moderate to light winds across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures are expected in the mid-to upper-60s to lower 70s towards the west. These warmer conditions will be very good for pollen release from the cones. Light to moderate winds will aid the released pollen to make it into the atmosphere, however dense conditions will hold most of the entrained pollen near the surface. Travel will begin towards the north during the day, but then turn southward as the winds turn this afternoon and evening. The change in direction will bring it back over the central Texas region. Therefore pollen will be common in the areas surrounding the juniper population, but will contain itself over the top of the Edwards Plateau and central Texas. The trees are near their traditional peak of release and so pollination is expected to occur in most areas where they grow, especially in sheltered urban areas that traditionally are warmer. However the atmosphere is in a moderate condition for entrainment and travel today. This will mean that areas throughout the juniper’s distribution will experience significant pollen today. Tomorrow and tomorrow night will be about the same if not a tad cooler with sunny skies and moderate winds from the southwest. Tuesday’s highs are expected to reach into the 60’s and nearing 70 in some places which will once again be very suitable for pollen release. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen over the top of the Edwards Plateau therefore those areas can expect significant amounts of pollen in the atmosphere. Areas further away from the juniper population will see a decreasing occurrence of pollen in the atmosphere.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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