The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 18 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 18 – TX/OK: The region will be warming today and tomorrow with temperatures in the 60’s across Texas today, but just getting to near 50 in southernmost Oklahoma. Skies to the north will be partly cloudy but clearing skies and sunshine is expected across Texas. In Oklahoma partly cloudy skies will occur with light winds from the north. Tonight partly cloudy skies will continue with temperatures dropping into the mid- to upper 20’s. Tomorrow will see continue partly cloudy skies but a bit warmer with temperatures in the upper 40’s to mid-50’s southward along the border. Winds will increase from light and variable conditions to a steady, moderate wind from the southeast. Tomorrow night the chance of precipitation in Oklahoma increases with rain and frozen rain a possibility. Temperatures will remain near freezing overnight and winds will have shifted coming from the east. In Texas sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected today across the region. The communities along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau can expect to see fog this morning but that will quickly burn off. Winds will be moderate and from the north. High temperatures are expected to be in the 60’s across the region. Overnight the skies will remain mostly clear and low temperatures will drop into the mid- to upper- 30’s in most places. Winds will be from the northeast at light to moderate conditions. Tomorrow the areas to the east will remain mostly to partly sunny whereas western skies will be partly cloudy. Temperatures will remain in the 60’s but the winds will shift from the north to coming from the south and southeast, and increase their strength especially in the west. The clouds in the west will continue to build into tomorrow night with a chance of showers from Dallas northwards into Oklahoma. South of the areas with potential rain fog will build overnight. The areas along the eastern edge of the Plateau have a chance of drizzle mixed in with the fog. Temperatures in Texas will remain warm with most low readings in the 40’s to low 50’s. Winds will be from the south at moderate conditions.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains initially move south on northerly winds during today, but then turn towards the north overnight as southeasterly winds move into the region. The trajectories move into northern Texas and then back towards the border region and into Oklahoma. Today, temperatures will barely make it to 50 degrees in the juniper population and skies will be partly cloudy with light to variable winds. Overnight low temperatures will be below freezing. Conditions where the trees grow in southern Oklahoma will barely reach 50 today under mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be light and variable today and tonight, then switch to moderate levels from the southeast tomorrow and tomorrow night. Tomorrow will have slightly warmer conditions with high temperatures expected in the mid 50’s. Winds will be from the southeast at moderate levels. Tomorrow night there is and increasing chance of rain from the north. Tomorrow night’s temperatures are expected to be at or below freezing so any precipitation will fall as rain or freezing rain.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow. poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today with good conditions tomorrow. Partly cloudy skies will occur today with high temperatures just reaching 50’s. Light and variable winds from the north will move the air mass southward on northerly winds. These conditions will be marginal for pollen release and with light winds be marginal for entrainment. Travel will be towards the south on light and variable winds. Tomorrow, winds will shift and become stronger from the southeast. For these reasons there is a low threat of pollen release, entrainment and travel today. Tonight partly cloudy skies will be maintained with temperatures in the twenties and very light winds. Tomorrow winds will shift and build towards moderate levels from the southeast, so winds moving southward today and tonight will circle towards the west and move back over Oklahoma. Tomorrow night there is an increasing chance of rain across the Oklahoma region moving in from the north and west.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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