The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 19 – TX/OK: The region will be remain seasonal today and then tomorrow but a blast of really cold air begins moving southward overnight tonight. Winds will be moderate to strong across the region as the changes occur. In Oklahoma today and tomorrow, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will dominate. Today’s high temperatures will be in the mid-40s across the central portion of the state and get into the lower 50s along the areas that border Texas. Winds will begin today from the southeast at moderate conditions, 10 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight there is a 30% to 50% chance of rain in the area with the temperatures sliding into the 20s. Winds will continue from the east then shift overnight to a northerly direction and build. Winds are expected to be moderate to strong late tonight and into tomorrow from the north. Temperatures tomorrow will stay in the mid-30s with a 50% chance of light freezing rain winds will maintain a 10 to 20 miles an hour strength throughout the night. Tomorrow night temperatures will be in the low 20s. In Texas conditions will be better with high temperatures today beginning in the 60’s on top of the Edwards Plateau and along the eastern edge. To the west high temperatures today will be in the low 70s. Winds will begin moderate from the southeast today. Starting in the west this afternoon the winds will begin to swing around going to a southerly direction and increasing their strength to conditions that are moderate to strong and gusty. Tonight mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will occur with patches of fog across the region. Low temperatures will be in the mid to low 40s and winds will be moderate from the south. The western areas of the forecast region will have stronger winds than those areas to the east. Tomorrow will have mostly cloudy skies with cooler temperatures, especially to the west. The areas that will be near 70 today are expected to have high temperatures in the 40s and 50s. The eastern side of the Plateau will be in the 50s and low 60s. Winds will continue to increase with moderate to strong conditions and gusts at 30 to 35 miles per hour. Tomorrow night the cold really takes over with most areas below freezing in the east and well below freezing into the teens to the west. Winds will maintain themselves from the north at moderate conditions with gust will above that, especially in west Texas.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains initially move northwest then swing around this evening and tomorrow. Today, temperatures will be in the 40s with a 50% chance of precipitation. Overnight low temperatures will be below freezing and become very breezy from the north. Conditions where the trees grow in southern Oklahoma will barely reach 50 today under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be moderate today and tonight, and moving from the southeast to the north. Tomorrow will have colder and wetter conditions with high temperatures expected in the mid 30s. Winds will be from the north at moderate to strong levels. Tomorrow night there will be very cold conditions with moderate winds from the north.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** moderate conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. good conditions for entrainment and transport exist today with poor conditions tomorrow. Partly cloudy skies will occur today with high temperatures just reaching the 50’s. Moderate winds from the southeast will swirl the air mass north and east and westward to over the next 48 hours. These conditions will be marginal for pollen release but once released will be picked up and moved some distance. For these reasons there is a moderate threat today, but it is restricted to the immediate area around the trees. The air mass is relatively stable and so most of the pollen will move along the ground and much of the pollen will fall out upon impaction on other vegetation. Tonight an increasing chance of precipitation in the form of rain and then freezing rain during tomorrow should dampen and further pollen release after today and will also act to remove any pollen that is in the atmosphere. Tomorrow high temperatures will barely reach into the mid 30’s with a 50% chance of light freezing rain. Winds will remain moderate to strong from the north.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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