The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 19 January 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 19 – TX/OK: The region will be remain seasonal today but a blast of really cold air begins moving southward overnight tonight. Winds will be moderate to strong across the region as the changes occur. In Oklahoma today and tomorrow, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will dominate. Today’s high temperatures will be in the mid-40s across the central portion of the state and get into the lower 50s along the areas that border Texas. Winds will begin today from the southeast at moderate conditions, 10 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight there is a 30% to 50% chance of rain in the area with the temperatures sliding into the 20s. Winds will continue from the east then shift overnight to a northerly direction and build. Winds are expected to be moderate to strong late tonight and into tomorrow from the north. Temperatures tomorrow will stay in the mid-30’s with a 50% chance of light freezing rain winds will maintain a 10 to 20 miles an hour strength throughout the night. Tomorrow night temperatures will be in the low 20s. In Texas conditions will be better with high temperatures today beginning in the 60’s on top of the Edwards Plateau and along the eastern edge. To the west high temperatures today will be in the low 70s. Winds will begin moderate from the southeast today. Starting in the west this afternoon the winds will begin to swing around going to a southerly direction and increasing their strength to conditions that are moderate to strong and gusty. Tonight mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will occur with patches of fog across the region. Low temperatures will be in the mid to low 40’s and winds will be moderate from the south. The western areas of the forecast region will have stronger winds than those areas to the east. Tomorrow will have mostly cloudy skies with cooler temperatures, especially to the west. The areas that will be near 70 today are expected to have high temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s. The eastern side of the Plateau will be in the 50’s and low 60’s. Winds will continue to increase with moderate to strong conditions and gusts at 30 to 35 miles per hour. Tomorrow night the cold really takes over with most areas below freezing in the east and well below freezing into the teens to the west. Winds will maintain themselves from the north at moderate conditions with gust will above that, especially in west Texas.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from Texas initially move north during today under partly sunny and partly cloudy skies and with moderate to strong winds from the south. Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s, especially west, with moderate winds during the day accompanied with gusty conditions up to 25 miles an hour. Tonight partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions build with an increase in humidity, especially to the north where the chance of precipitation builds overnight. Areas of fog will be common throughout the evening. Tomorrow cooler air comes into the region and so high temperatures will drop significantly in some areas. For the most part temperatures will remain in the range that allows pollen release. Winds will shift from a southerly direction eventually coming from the north. Tomorrow night really cold conditions will move southward and most areas will be below freezing but with moderate winds and gusts in the 30 to 35 mile per hour range.


OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow*** very good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. good conditions for entrainment, good conditions for entrainment tomorrow and moderate good for transport exist today and tomorrow. Today’s conditions will be driven by warm sunny skies and moderate winds across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures are expected in the 60s in most areas with moderate to strong winds today, building tomorrow when they will switch from today’s south and southeasterly direction and come out of the north with much colder air. These warm conditions will be very good for pollen release from the cones. Moderate to strong winds will aid the released pollen to make it into the atmosphere, however dense conditions will hold most of the entrained pollen near the surface during its travel. Travel will begin towards the north during the day, but then turn southward tomorrow. Therefore pollen will be common in the areas surrounding the juniper population, but will be centered over the western side of the Edwards Plateau and west central Texas. The trees are near their traditional peak of release and so pollination is expected to occur in most areas where they grow, especially in sheltered urban areas that traditionally are warmer. Warm conditions and strong winds should result in high concentrations of juniper pollen in the atmosphere in most areas of central and western Texas. Areas throughout the juniper’s distribution will experience significant pollen today. Tomorrow and tomorrow night will see significant changes in the temperatures and the direction of the wind as cold air moves in from the north. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen over the top of the Edwards Plateau and western Texas, therefore those areas can expect significant amounts of pollen in the atmosphere.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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