The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 20 January 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Thursday, January 20 – TX/OK: North wind arrived in the region and the high temperatures have dropped below 60 degrees in most areas across Texas and remain cold in Oklahoma today. In Oklahoma mostly cloudy skies will occur with a 50% chance of snow and light freezing rain from the center of the state south towards the Texas border. Winds will be moderate to strong from the north. Tonight partly cloudy skies with overnight temperatures well into the mid- 20’s and below will occur. Tomorrow warmer conditions will enter into the region on moderate southerly winds. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper to mid- 40’s. Tomorrow night low temperatures will once again be below freezing with winds from the southwest declining to light and variable conditions. In Texas today, mostly cloudy skies will occur this morning with a chance of fog in most areas. Temperatures will be in the 40’s and low 50’s in western Texas and in the 50’s on the Edwards Plateau and throughout the edge communities. Winds will be moderate to strong from the north with many places in the eastern forecast area seeing gust between 30 and 35 miles per hour. Tonight partly cloudy conditions with the strong winds maintained. Low temperatures will be well below freezing with the western areas into the teens and the Plateau and surrounding communities in the mid- to upper 20’s. Tomorrow, high temperatures will remain in the 50’s under sunny skies. Winds will begin to calm with southwesterly breezes moving into the western areas, especially later during the day. Tomorrow night will return to cold conditions, but most temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 20’s and lower 30’s. Winds will continue at light to moderate conditions from the southwest.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move south on strong northerly winds. The trajectories move across Texas towards southernmost areas of the state. Today, temperatures will barely make it into the 40’s and low 50’s to the west and upper 50’s to low 60’s along the eastern edge of the Plateau. . Overnight low temperatures will be well below freezing and remain breezy from the north. Winds will remain strong tonight from the north with gusts that can be as high as 35 miles per hour. Tomorrow will continue to cool with high temperatures just getting in the mid- 50’s. The region will be drying with no chance of precipitation in the forecast. Winds will switch from today’s northerly directions and come from the south at moderate levels starting tomorrow afternoon. Skies will be sunny tomorrow across Texas and mostly clear overnight..

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow*** very good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. good conditions for entrainment today and tomorrow with high winds, but moderate conditions for transport exist today and tomorrow. Today’s conditions will be driven by mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s across the Edwards Plateau today and tomorrow. Winds will be from the north and moderate to strong, building tonight and tomorrow to strong levels and very gusty. Tomorrow afternoon the will switch from today’s northerly direction, and come out of the south at moderate to strong levelsr. These moderate conditions will still be very good for pollen release from the cones. Moderate to strong winds will aid the released pollen to make it into the atmosphere, however dense conditions will hold most of the entrained pollen near the surface during its travel. Travel will begin towards the south during the day, but then turn tomorrow afternoon back northward as southerly winds take over. Therefore pollen will be common in all areas surrounding the juniper population and will move southward today and tonight, tomorrow a more northerly movement of the pollen will take over on southerly winds. The trees are at their traditional peak of release and so pollination is expected to occur in most areas where they grow. Warm conditions and strong winds will result in high concentrations of juniper pollen in the atmosphere in most areas of central and western Texas. Areas throughout the juniper’s distribution will experience significant pollen today. Tomorrow and tomorrow night will see significant changes in the direction of the wind as northerly cold air is replaced by warmer southerly conditions. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen over the top of the Edwards Plateau into southern Texas, therefore those areas can expect significant amounts of pollen in the atmosphere.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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