The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 21 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will begin to warm today as the cold north winds begin to subside and eventually switch to a more southerly to southeasterly direction in the late afternoon and early evening. Skies today and tomorrow across the region will be sunny except in Oklahoma. In Oklahoma temperatures will be in the mid- to upper- 40’s. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight the skies in Oklahoma will become partly cloudy with low temperatures in the mid- to low-20s. Winds will decrease but remain from an overall southerly direction. Tomorrow sunny skies will occur in the southern portion of the state with temperatures in the mid-50’s and moderate winds from the northwest. Mostly cloudy skies will return tomorrow night with much of the state below freezing, but the southern portion of the state in the mid-30’s and winds from the southeast at moderate strength. In Texas today, high temperatures will be in the mid to low 50’s and even just in the upper 40’s. The western portion of the Edwards Plateau will see the warmest conditions with areas in the east cooler. Skies will be sunny today and winds will be from the northeast and light to moderate over the Edwards Plateau and along its eastern edge. To the west winds will be moderate and building towards the afternoon from the southwest. Over the Plateau and along the eastern areas the winds will switch to a more southeasterly direction this afternoon. Tonight mostly cloudy skies will dominate with temperatures in the low 30’s in the east and mid- to low 20’s to the west. Winds will lighten and be from the southwest in most areas. Tomorrow sunny skies will once again prevail and temperatures will warm by 10 degrees with most areas in the low 60’s. Winds will once again shift to a northerly direction across the Plateau and its surrounding communities to the east but maintain a southerly direction in western areas. Overnight tomorrow mostly cloudy skies will be back with temperatures in the 30’s in most areas. Winds will be light to moderate from the south with stronger conditions over the western areas.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains initially move northward and then off to the east on moderate winds that will decrease tonight , The trajectories east over Arkansas. Today high temperatures will reach only into the upper 40’s range under partly cloudy skies. The winds will be overall from the south at moderate conditions. Tonight low temperatures will be in the mid-20’s with light and variable winds. Tomorrow sunny skies will prevail and winds will be moderate from the northwest. The high temperature tomorrow will be in the mid-50s and warmer. Winds tomorrow will be moderate from the northwest changing to a southeasterly direction tomorrow night. Low temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid-30s and are not predicted to go below freezing for the first time in many days. The region will be drying with no chance of precipitation in the forecast.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow. moderate conditions for entrainment and moderate conditions for transport exist today and tomorrow. Sunny skies will occur with high temperatures in the mid-40’s today then tomorrow a slight warming with high’s in the mid 50’s. Today’s temperatures are just at the point where some pollen may be released, but it is marginal. Moderate winds from the south and west will drive any discharge north and then eastward today and tonight. The atmosphere looks to be stable both days. Sunny conditions will return tomorrow with warming into the low to mid- 50’s. Warmer temperatures tomorrow will be a much better day for pollen release. Winds tomorrow will be moderate from the northwest moving entrained pollen over northern Texas, the tomorrow night cool temperatures in the 30’s are expected and the wind will once again shift coming out of the southeast.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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