The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, January 21 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will begin to warm today as the cold north winds begin to subside and eventually switch to a more southerly to southeasterly direction in the late afternoon and early evening. Skies today and tomorrow across the region will be sunny except in Oklahoma. In Oklahoma temperatures will be in the mid- to upper- 40’s. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight the skies in Oklahoma will become partly cloudy with low temperatures in the mid- to low-20s. Winds will decrease but remain from an overall southerly direction. Tomorrow sunny skies will occur in the southern portion of the state with temperatures in the mid-50’s and moderate winds from the northwest. Mostly cloudy skies will return tomorrow night with much of the state below freezing, but the southern portion of the state in the mid-30’s and winds from the southeast at moderate strength. In Texas today, high temperatures will be in the mid to low 50’s and even just in the upper 40’s. The western portion of the Edwards Plateau will see the warmest conditions with areas in the east cooler. Skies will be sunny today and winds will be from the northeast and light to moderate over the Edwards Plateau and along its eastern edge. To the west winds will be moderate and building towards the afternoon from the southwest. Over the Plateau and along the eastern areas the winds will switch to a more southeasterly direction this afternoon. Tonight mostly cloudy skies will dominate with temperatures in the low 30’s in the east and mid- to low 20’s to the west. Winds will lighten and be from the southwest in most areas. Tomorrow sunny skies will once again prevail and temperatures will warm by 10 degrees with most areas in the low 60’s. Winds will once again shift to a northerly direction across the Plateau and its surrounding communities to the east but maintain a southerly direction in western areas. Overnight tomorrow mostly cloudy skies will be back with temperatures in the 30’s in most areas. Winds will be light to moderate from the south with stronger conditions over the western areas.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau are very mixed today with winds beginning from the northeast then switching to the southeast this afternoon. Tonight the move to a more southwesterly direction. In the morning the Edwards Plateau and areas to the east have north to northeasterly breezes whereas the west continues from the south. The southerly breezes return region wide then tomorrow night. Through all of this skies will be sunny today and tomorrow with mostly clear conditions tonight. Partly cloudy conditions will return tomorrow night. Temperatures will be cool today with highs just getting into the mide 50’s in most areas. Overnight the Plateau and edge communities will see low temperatures that flirt with the freezing mark. To the west low temperatures will be in the mid to low 20’s. Tomorrow 60’s return to the region for high temperatures and tomorrow night most areas will be above freezing but in the 30’s.




OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow*** moderate to good conditions for pollen release today and very good conditions tomorrow. good conditions for entrainment today with good conditions tomorrow and good conditions for transport exist today and tomorrow. Today’s conditions will be driven by sunny skies and temperatures in the 50’s across the Edwards Plateau today warming into the 60’s tomorrow. Winds will be light to moderate and continually shifting over the forecast period. The atmosphere appears to be stable allowing for moderate to good conditions for both entrainment and travel. However with the continually shifting winds most of the entrained pollen will remain in and around the areas where it was releases. Most of the trajectories remain within Texas, often passing back over the release area. The trees are at their traditional peak of release and so pollination is expected to occur in most areas where they grow. Warming conditions today and warmer conditions tomorrow coupled with moderate winds will result in high concentrations of juniper pollen in the atmosphere in most areas of central and western Texas. In addition the swirling winds at light to moderate conditions will keep pollen in the general Edwards Plateau area. Areas throughout the juniper’s distribution will experience pollen today with significant amounts tomorrow. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen over the top of the Edwards Plateau into southern Texas, therefore those areas can expect significant amounts of pollen in the atmosphere.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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