The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sunday, January 23 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be cool with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in Oklahoma to the 50s and 60s in Texas. Skies will be mostly cloudy during the next two days and winds will be moderate to strong. In Oklahoma partly cloudy skies will occur today with temperatures in the mid- 40s along the Texas border and much colder northward. Winds will be from the north at moderate levels. Tonight partly cloudy skies will occur as low temperatures drop into the low 20s. Tomorrow high temperatures will warm some with temperatures from the 40s in Oklahoma to the 50s under partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow night low temperatures return to below freezing conditions registering mid- to upper 20s with winds from the northeast at around 10 miles per hour. In Texas today, mostly cloudy conditions will occur along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. There is a 20% chance of showers this afternoon. To the west, clear to partly cloudy skies and drier conditions will occur. Over the Plateau temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s and moderate to strong winds will occur coming from the north. Winds will be gaining strength during the afternoon. Tonight mostly to partly cloudy skies with temperatures towards the west will be in the mid- 20s. Towards the east mostly cloudy skies will occur with low temperatures in the thirties but above freezing in most areas. Winds will continue from the north in all areas except for the northwest region around San Angelo where a southerly breeze will begin to build. Tomorrow the western region of the Edwards Plateau will see clearing with the skies becoming mostly sunny. Temperatures will be in the lower 60s and winds at light levels from the south. Further east mostly cloudy skies will occur with temperatures in the 50s and the chance of showers remaining. Winds will be from the northeast at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow night the chance of showers will remain in the edge communities, temperatures will return to below freezing towards the west and 30s in the east, and light to moderate winds from the north.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau are mixed today with partly cloudy skies to the west and warmer conditions, highs in the 60s, compared to the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau where there is a chance of showers today, tonight, and tomorrow. In the east the high temperature today and tomorrow will be in the mid- to upper- 50s. Today winds will be from the north at moderate to stronger levels this afternoon. North of Austin towards northern Texas winds will be from the southwest, as winds wrap around the Plateau region. Tonight low temperatures will be below freezing in the west and low 30s to the east. Winds will remain from the north. Tomorrow, the 20% chance of rain showers is maintained in the edge communities, while sunny to mostly sunny condition will dominate to the west. Temperatures will rise in most areas into the lower- 60s to the west. Those areas will see the winds switch coming from the south. The remainder of the areas will see winds from the north. Winds across the region will stay at low to moderate levels. Tomrrow night winds will return to a northerly flow and temperatures will be below freezing west and in the 30’s again along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau region.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today and tomorrow*** good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. moderate conditions for entrainment today and tomorrow and good conditions for transport exist today and tomorrow. Today’s conditions will be driven by sunny skies to the east but humidity and the chance of showers across the western areas of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures in the 50s and 60s across the region today and tomorrow will be in the range where pollen is released along with winds that will be moderate today but only light tomorrow. These are conditions that generally at this time of year lead to really good conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. However, the forecast calls for the potential of rain showers along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau which indicates that humidity will be high in those areas and mostly cloudy skies will reduce some of the capacity for pollen release and travel. In addition, the region as a whole has had a number of days with high pollen levels and at some point the absolute number of trees still waiting to initiate pollination will begin to diminish. All of the trajectories today will push anything that does become entrained towards the south. Because of these conditions pollen entrained within the air mass will be moving toward the southern Texas regions. Most of the trajectories remain within Texas. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen over the top of the Edwards Plateau into southern Texas, therefore those areas can expect pollen in the atmosphere.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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