The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 24 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be mild today with temperatures todays in the 50’s and 60’s, and tomorrow cooling into the 40’s and 50’s. Skies will be mostly cloudy during the next two days and winds will be moderate. In Oklahoma partly cloudy skies will occur today with temperatures in the low- 50’s along the border with Texas. Winds will start this morning from the southeast but switch to a northerly and northeasterly direction. Winds will be light throughout the day. Tonight partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur as low temperatures drop into the low 20’s. Tomorrow high temperatures will only warm into the mid- 40’s under sunny skies. Winds will be light to moderate from the north bringing cooler conditions with temperatures dropping by about 10 degrees. Tomorrow night low temperatures return to mid- to upper 20s with winds from the southeast at modest levels becoming light and variable. In Texas today, mostly cloudy conditions will occur across the eastern portions of the region, whereas the clouds will be more broken to the west. There is a 20% chance of showers this afternoon and this evening in the edge communities along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau. Over the region temperatures will be in the upper 50’s to the east and low 60’s to the west. Winds will be moderate from the northeast along the edge communities and moderate from the south to southeast in the western areas of the Plateau. Tonight temperatures will be in the mid 20’s to the west and just above freezing along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow skies will begin to clear as northerly breezes at moderate levels move slightly cooler air across the region. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid- 50s in most places and winds will be from the north and northwest. Mostly clear skies will continue tomorrow night with temperatures falling below the freezing mark. Winds will once again be light to moderate with a northerly flow maintained in the east but a southerly breeze to the west.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move south across central Texas on moderate northerly winds. Today high temperatures will reach into the low 50’s range under partly cloudy skies. Conditions will be marginal to good for pollen release. Tonight low temperatures will be in the upper- 20’s with light winds from the north. Tomorrow sunny skies will prevail and winds will be light from the north during the day and overnight. The high temperature tomorrow will be in the mid- 40’s with light to moderate conditions from the north. Tomorrow night north winds remain at moderate to light conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** moderate conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow. moderate conditions for entrainment and travel today, and moderate conditions for tomorrow. Partly cloudy skies will occur with high temperatures in the low- 50’s today then tomorrow slight cooling will occur with high temperatures in the mid 40’s. Today’s temperatures are barely suitable for pollen release; it will cool tonight and stay cooler tomorrow during the day. However, tomorrow should have sunny skies and thus a slightly greater chance for pollen release. Moderate winds from the north late today, tonight and tomorrow night will drive anything in the atmosphere southward towards Texas. The northerly flow should occur tonight tomorrow before switching tomorrow night.. The atmosphere appears somewhat buoyant once it moves into Texas, thus keeping pollen entrained and moving southward. Winds, however, will be only moderate over the next couple of days.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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