The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, January 24 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be mild today with temperatures todays in the 50s and 60s, and tomorrow cooling into the 40s and 50s. Skies will be mostly cloudy during the next two days and winds will be moderate. In Oklahoma partly cloudy skies will occur today with temperatures in the low- 50s along the border with Texas. Winds will start this morning from the southeast but switch to a northerly and northeasterly direction. Winds will be light throughout the day. Tonight partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur as low temperatures drop into the low 20’s. Tomorrow high temperatures will only warm into the mid- 40s under sunny skies. Winds will be light to moderate from the north bringing cooler conditions with temperatures dropping by about 10 degrees. Tomorrow night low temperatures return to mid- to upper 20s with winds from the southeast at modest levels becoming light and variable. In Texas today, mostly cloudy conditions will occur across the eastern portions of the region, whereas the clouds will be more broken to the west. There is a 20% chance of showers this afternoon and this evening in the edge communities along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau. Over the region temperatures will be in the upper 50s to the east and low 60s to the west. Winds will be moderate from the northeast along the edge communities and moderate from the south to southeast in the western areas of the Plateau. Tonight temperatures will be in the mid 20s to the west and just above freezing along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow skies will begin to clear as northerly breezes at moderate levels move slightly cooler air across the region. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid- 50s in most places and winds will be from the north and northwest. Mostly clear skies will continue tomorrow night with temperatures falling below the freezing mark. Winds will once again be light to moderate with a northerly flow maintained in the east but a southerly breeze to the west.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau are mixed today with partly cloudy skies to the west and warmer conditions, highs in the 60s, compared to the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau where there is a chance of showers today and tonight. In the east the high temperature today and tomorrow will be in the mid- to upper- 50s. Today and tomorrow winds will be from the north at moderate levels. In western portions of the region today and during the early portion of this evenings winds will be from the south at light to moderate levels then switch to a more northerly direction. Will be in the mid- twenties to the west and mid-30s to the east. Tomorrow, mostly sunny condition will dominate as the skies work to clear themselves. Temperatures will drop a bit as the colder air from the north moves across the region. Temperatures will be in the mid to lower 50s in most places, the southern most areas may make it just to 60. Tomorrow night winds will return to the bimodal pattern from the north in the eastern areas and from the south to the west. Temperatures will be below freezing across the region.




OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today and tomorrow*** good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. moderate conditions for entrainment today and tomorrow and good conditions for transport exist today and tomorrow. Today’s conditions will be driven by sunny skies to the east but humidity and the chance of showers across the western areas of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures in the 50s and 60s across the region today and tomorrow will be in the range where pollen is released along with winds that will be moderate today and tomorrow. These are conditions that generally at this time of year lead to really good conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. However, the forecast calls for the potential of rain showers along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau which indicates that humidity will be high in those areas and mostly cloudy skies will reduce some of the capacity for pollen release and travel. In addition, the region as a whole has had a number of days with high pollen levels and at some point the absolute number of trees still waiting to initiate pollination will begin to diminish. All of the trajectories today will push anything that does become entrained towards the east at moderate levels. Most of the trajectories show them staying within the Texas border. Because of these conditions pollen entrained within the air mass will be moving toward the eastern Texas regions. As the northerly breezes mix more buoyant conditions will exist lifting pollen into the atmosphere for downwind deposition. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen over the top of the Edwards Plateau into eastern Texas, therefore those areas can expect pollen in the atmosphere.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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