The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 25 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 25 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be mild today with temperatures in the upper 50s, nearing the 60s across Texas and in the 40s across Oklahoma. In Oklahoma, skies will be sunny today and partly clear to clear tonight. Temperatures today will be in the mid- to upper 40s with a light to moderate north winds. Tonight partly cloudy skies will occur across central Oklahoma but near the border with Texas clear skies will prevail. Temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s. Winds will be light and variable along the border. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will predominate with temperatures rising by about 5 degrees with highs in the low 50s. Winds will be moderate at 10 miles per hour from the west in the area of the Juniper population. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will return with temperatures in the low 20s and winds from the north at 10 miles an hour. In Texas mostly sunny skies will occur today. Partly cloudy skies will start the day in the central Edwards Plateau area. Temperatures will be in the 50s in most areas with the southernmost areas barely getting into the low 60s. Winds will be from the north along the eastern areas and from the northwest in western portions of the forecast area. Winds will be moderate ranging from 10 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight mostly clear skies will be across the area with cold conditions the norm and temperatures well into the 20 degree range. Winds will shift from to a flow from the south to southeast in the western areas of the Plateau. To the east the northerly winds will be maintained. Tomorrow mostly sunny to sunny skies will return with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 50s and low 60s in areas surrounding the eastern Edwards Plateau. Winds will be mixed most winds beginning to shift towards the south and southeast early in the day and others turning late in the afternoon. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will prevail and temperatures will be in the mid- 20s to the west and lower 30s to the east. Winds will follow the same pattern as the temperatures with a northerly direction to the west and coming from the east to southeast along the western side of the Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move south across central Texas on moderate northerly winds. Today high temperatures will reach into the low 50s range under partly cloudy skies. Conditions will be marginal to good for pollen release. Tonight low temperatures will be in the upper- 20s with light winds from the north. Tomorrow sunny skies will prevail and winds will be light from the north during the day and overnight. The high temperature tomorrow will be in the mid- 40s with light to moderate conditions from the north. Tomorrow night north winds remain at moderate to light conditions with temperatures in the upper 20s.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** marginal conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow. poor conditions for entrainment and travel today, and tomorrow. Sunny skies will occur with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s today then tomorrow a slight warming into the low 50s will occur. Today’s temperatures are just marginal for pollen release. Overnight it will cool into the upper 20s. Moderate winds will continue to push southward into northern Texas, so anything that potentially might get entrained would head southward. The air is dense and will flow along the ground increasing the impaction with vegetation and other surfaces, a process that leads to reduced pollen concentrations. Winds tonight will become light and variable then pick up tomorrow from the west at light to moderate levels. For these reasons the cool temperatures and poor conditions for entrainment and travel we have noted a low threat today. Tomorrow temperatures rise a bit conditions look a little better thus a moderate threat.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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