The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 25 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 25 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be mild today with temperatures in the upper 50s, nearing the 60s across Texas and in the 40s across Oklahoma. In Oklahoma, skies will be sunny today and partly clear to clear tonight. Temperatures today will be in the mid- to upper 40s with a light to moderate north wind. Tonight partly cloudy skies will occur across central Oklahoma but near the border with Texas clear skies will prevail. Temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s. Winds will be light and variable along the border. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will predominate with temperatures rising by about 5 degrees with highs in the low 50s. Winds will be moderate at 10 miles per hour from the west in the area of the Juniper population. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will return with temperatures in the low 20s and winds from the north at 10 miles an hour. In Texas mostly sunny skies will occur today. Partly cloudy skies will start the day in the central Edwards Plateau area. Temperatures will be in the 50s in most areas with the southernmost areas barely getting into the low 60s. Winds will be from the north along the eastern areas and from the northwest in western portions of the forecast area. Winds will be moderate ranging from 10 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight mostly clear skies will be across the area with cold conditions the norm and temperatures well into the 20 degree range. Winds will shift from to a flow from the south to southeast in the western areas of the Plateau. To the east the northerly winds will be maintained. Tomorrow mostly sunny to sunny skies will return with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 50s and low 60s in areas surrounding the eastern Edwards Plateau. Winds will be mixed most winds beginning to shift towards the south and southeast early in the day and others turning late in the afternoon. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will prevail and temperatures will be in the mid- 20s to the west and lower 30s to the east. Winds will follow the same pattern as the temperatures with a northerly direction to the west and coming from the east to southeast along the western side of the Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau will move southward on cold air that is moving into the region from the north. Skies will begin partly cloudy to mostly cloudy in some areas but sunny skies will emerge in the morning and a sunny afternoon is forecast. Temperatures will be in the 50s in most areas with northerly winds moving over the area at light to moderate levels. Tonight most areas will be below freezing under mostly clear skies. Winds will maintain a northerly flow in the eastern areas of the Plateau, but come around to a southeasterly flow over the western regions. This will cause southward trajectories to turn and head towards west Texas from their southern positions. The moving southward is dense because it is cold and stays at or near the same elevation in the atmosphere. This heavier air is poor for entrainment and travel as particles tend to fall out of the atmosphere when the impact surfaces. At ground level it is much easier for this to occur. Tomorrow temperatures will warm a bit with sunny skies. Winds will maintain their light to moderate levels but switch, coming from the southeast. Tomorrow night cold conditions return with most areas below freezing in the mid to high 20s, but the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau will be in the 30s toying with the freezing level.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and Moderate to High Threat Tomorrow*** good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment exist today with good conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for transport exist today with good conditions tomorrow. Today’s conditions will see partly cloudy skies over the Plateau and sunny skies most of the other areas. By this afternoon sunny skies will occur across the forecast region. Temperatures will be in the mid to low 50s in most areas with the southern areas just getting into the 60s. Winds will be in the light to moderate level from the north but pushing cold dense air southward. Pollen release is expected but not at severe levels. The cold air will lead to poor conditions for entrainment and travel today. For these reasons the forecast is for moderate conditions. The region as a whole has had a number of days with high pollen levels and at some point the absolute number of trees still waiting to initiate pollination will begin to diminish. All of the trajectories today will push anything that does become entrained towards the south at moderate levels. Most of the trajectories show them staying within the Texas border. Tomorrow temperatures will warm slightly and winds will be more mixed thus a bit more pollen release is expected and a greater chance of entrainment will occur. For these reasons a moderate to high threat is expected. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen over and south of the Edwards Plateau eventually turning and pushing the winds into west Texas, therefore those areas can expect pollen in the atmosphere which may be heavy in localized areas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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