The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 26 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 26 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be mild and warming today and tomorrow. Region highs today will be in the 50’s in most areas and in the 60’s tomorrow. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will remain but temperatures will continue to warm into the low 60’s. Winds will remain from the west at 10 miles per hour. Tonight partly cloudy skies will remain with temperatures in the lower 20’s under light and variable winds. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies are forecast and low temperatures will be warmer, in the low 30’s. In Texas, mostly sunny to sunny skies will rule the day. Temperatures will be in the mid 50’s in most of the west and pushing into the low 60’s to the east. Along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau winds will start in most areas from the west or south. In San Antonio, winds will start from the north. In the west most winds will be from the southeast at light conditions. The eastern areas of the Plateau will also shift to the southeast late in the day. Tonight mostly clear conditions will occur across the region. Low temperatures will be in the low 30’s to the east and below freezing in the mid to lower 20’s to the west. Tomorrow mostly sunny skies will return with temperatures warming some 10 to 15 degrees into the mid to upper 60’s. Winds will be from the northwest at moderate levels to the east, and from the west in the west at light to moderate conditions. Tomorrow night will be mostly clear returning to below freezing conditions in the west and in the low 30’s to the east. Winds will switch from the earlier westerly direction to a more southwesterly direction.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the central Texas region move southeastward on light winds initially that will take them across the plateau towards southeastern Texas. However, winds will be very light to moderate and thus the amount of movement will be somewhat limited. Areas to the northeastern portion of Texas will see stronger winds that will begin to move into the region from the west, moving the trajectories towards the east and into neighboring Louisiana over the forecast period. Today high temperatures will reach the mid 50’s to the west and the lower 60’s to the east. These conditions are good for pollen release, but the light to moderate winds will hamper entrainment and travel initially. In addition the winds are dense during the initial movement meaning that any pollen that is entrained will move along the ground where impaction is greatest as a process to cleanse particles from the atmosphere. However, just downwind more buoyant conditions occur lifting an remaining pollen high into the atmosphere. The light winds and cool temperatures will lead to marginal conditions for release today. Tonight low temperatures will be in the lower- 30’s in the edge communities with moderate winds. Tomorrow sunny skies will prevail and winds will be more moderate from the west to northwest during the day shifting to the southwest overnight. The high temperature tomorrow will be in the 60’s with light to moderate winds from the west and northwest. Conditions tomorrow will be much better for pollen entrainment and travel across the region. Tomorrow night southwest winds will occur at moderate to light conditions with temperatures in the mid- 30’s to the east and 20’s to the west.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow*** good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment exist today with good conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for transport exist today with good conditions tomorrow. Today’s conditions will see sunny skies over the Plateau and sunny skies in most of the other areas. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50’s in most areas with the edge communities getting into the 60’s. Winds will be in the light to moderate level from the northwest in most areas. Pollen release is expected but not at severe levels with the cooler weather. Conditions for entrainment and travel today will be poor to begin with, but very buoyant along the pathways to the east. Pollen remaining entrained will be pushed towards the east into eastern Texas and Louisiana. For these reasons the forecast is for moderate conditions. The region as a whole has had a number of days with high pollen levels and at some point the absolute number of trees still waiting to initiate pollination will begin to diminish. All of the trajectories today will push anything that does become entrained towards the northwest but on light wind levels so the distance travelled will be modest. Most of the trajectories show them staying within the central Texas region. Because of these conditions pollen entrained within the winds will remain centralized over Texas. Tomorrow temperatures will warm into the 60’s with an increase in winds from the west and northwest will present a much greater chance of pollen release, entrainment and travel throughout the region. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen over the Edwards Plateau eventually turning and pushing the winds towards eastern Texas, therefore those areas can expect pollen in the atmosphere which may be heavy in localized areas. Tomorrow presents much better conditions for pollination, entrainment and travel.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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