The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 27 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be mild to warm with temperatures in the 60’s today and into the low 70’s in many areas tomorrow. Winds will be light to moderate from the west today, tonight and switching to the southwest tomorrow. Tomorrow night winds will move to a southerly flow at low to moderate levels. In Oklahoma sunny skies with temperatures in the mid 60’s will occur with low temperatures in the mid 30’s. Winds will be from the west at moderate levels today and tonight light and variable conditions are expected. Tomorrow temperatures will increase into the upper 60’s with southwest winds at 10 miles per hour under sunny skies. Tomorrow night skies will be clear with temperatures in the mid 30’s with light and variable winds. In Texas, sunny skies will occur across the region. Temperatures will be warming into the mid 60’s to the west and upper to mid- 60’s along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the west at 5 to 10 miles during the day in the eastern areas whereas they will be stronger to the west at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to get into the mid- 30s across the region with areas to the west in the upper 20’s. Winds will be maintained from the west at light levels in most regions. Tomorrow sunny skies will occur to the north with mostly sunny skies across the region heading towards partly cloudy skies during the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be warm with most areas seeing highs in the upper 60’s and low 70’s. Winds will be maintained from the southwest at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow night skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with low temperatures warming into the upper 30’s and low 40’s. Winds will remain from the southwest along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and from the south towards the western areas.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move due east on light winds today that will take it across southern Oklahoma and into Arkansas. Entrained pollen will move due east on these westerly breezes as the high temperatures will reach the mid 60s during the day. The light winds and sunny skies will lead to good conditions for release. In addition the initial winds show neither significant density nor buoyance and thus will also be good for entrainment and travel. Tonight low temperatures will be in the mid- 30s with light and variable winds. Tomorrow sunny skies will prevail and winds will be more moderate from the southwest during the day shifting back to light and variable conditions overnight. The high temperature tomorrow will be near 70 with moderate winds from the southwest. Conditions tomorrow will be much better for pollen release, entrainment and travel across the region. Tomorrow night light and variable winds will occur at light and variable conditions with temperatures in the mid- 30s.


OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. good conditions for entrainment and travel today, and tomorrow as well. Sunny skies will occur with high temperatures in the mid 60s today and approaching 70 tomorrow to will provide very good conditions for pollination. Winds today will be from the west at moderate conditions with the atmosphere stable across the area. Overnight it will cool into the mid- 30s and to the same level tomorrow night. Moderate winds will continue to push entrained pollen eastward on west winds across southern Oklahoma into areas in Arkansas and Louisiana. The forecast conditions of warm temperatures and good conditions for entrainment and travel make today to be a high threat in areas where the trees lie upwind.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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