The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
High |
San Antonio |
High |
Date Issued: 27 January 2011
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Thursday, January 27 – TX/OK:
Conditions across the region will be mild to warm with temperatures in the 60s today and into the low 70s in many
areas tomorrow. Winds will be light to moderate from the west today, tonight and switching to the southwest tomorrow.
Tomorrow night winds will move to a southerly flow at low to moderate levels. In Oklahoma sunny skies with temperatures
in the mid 60s will occur with low temperatures in the mid 30s. Winds will be from the west at moderate levels
today and tonight light and variable conditions are expected. Tomorrow temperatures will increase into the upper
60s with southwest winds at 10 miles per hour under sunny skies. Tomorrow night skies will be clear with temperatures
in the mid 30s with light and variable winds. In Texas, sunny skies will occur across the region. Temperatures
will be warming into the mid 60s to the west and upper to mid- 60s along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.
Winds will be from the west at 5 to 10 miles during the day in the eastern areas whereas they will be stronger
to the west at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to get into the mid-
30s across the region with areas to the west in the upper 20s. Winds will be maintained from the west at light
levels in most regions. Tomorrow sunny skies will occur to the north with mostly sunny skies across the region
heading towards partly cloudy skies during the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be warm with most
areas seeing highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Winds will be maintained from the southwest at light to moderate
levels. Tomorrow night skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with low temperatures warming into the upper
30s and low 40s. Winds will remain from the southwest along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and from the
south towards the western areas.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the central Texas region move eastward on light to moderate
winds will take will move across the plateau towards eastern Texas and Louisiana. Today and tomorrow temperatures
will be warm under sunny skies today and partly cloudy skies tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon mostly cloudy
skies will occur across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s today and approaching the 70s
tomorrow. Winds will be light to moderate from the west today then begin to turn towards the southwest for tomorrow.
Tomorrow night the winds will stay from the south and southwest across the region. The winds during the entire
forecast period will be relatively stable and thus both entrainment as well as travel will be significant over
the next two days. Low temperatures during the night will be mostly above freezing, except in the far west tonight.
OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow*** Good conditions for
pollen release today and tomorrow. Good conditions for entrainment exist today as well as tomorrow. Moderate
conditions for transport exist today. Today’s conditions will see sunny skies over the region. Temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 60s in most areas with the edge communities getting close to 70. These temperatures will
rise tomorrow with areas in the 70s. Winds will be in the light to moderate level from the west across the area.
Pollen release is expected with the warm weather. Conditions for entrainment and travel today will be moderate
to good with a stable atmosphere over the region. Pollen remaining entrained will be pushed towards the east across
eastern Texas and into Louisiana. For these reasons the forecast is for moderate to good conditions for pollen
traveling downwind. The region as a whole has had a number of days with high pollen levels and at some point the
absolute number of trees still waiting to initiate pollination will begin to diminish. All of the trajectories
today will push pollen that is entrained east on moderate wind levels. The wind trajectories show the overall
pattern moving entrained pollen over the Edwards Plateau towards the east on westerly winds. Areas in eastern
Texas and Louisiana will see significant levels of pollen in the atmosphere. Tomorrow conditions will be very
similar with the winds coming from the southwest so a more northerly trajectory for pollen deposition.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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