The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 27 January 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Thursday, January 27 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be mild to warm with temperatures in the 60s today and into the low 70s in many areas tomorrow. Winds will be light to moderate from the west today, tonight and switching to the southwest tomorrow. Tomorrow night winds will move to a southerly flow at low to moderate levels. In Oklahoma sunny skies with temperatures in the mid 60s will occur with low temperatures in the mid 30s. Winds will be from the west at moderate levels today and tonight light and variable conditions are expected. Tomorrow temperatures will increase into the upper 60s with southwest winds at 10 miles per hour under sunny skies. Tomorrow night skies will be clear with temperatures in the mid 30s with light and variable winds. In Texas, sunny skies will occur across the region. Temperatures will be warming into the mid 60s to the west and upper to mid- 60s along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the west at 5 to 10 miles during the day in the eastern areas whereas they will be stronger to the west at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to get into the mid- 30s across the region with areas to the west in the upper 20s. Winds will be maintained from the west at light levels in most regions. Tomorrow sunny skies will occur to the north with mostly sunny skies across the region heading towards partly cloudy skies during the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be warm with most areas seeing highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Winds will be maintained from the southwest at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow night skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with low temperatures warming into the upper 30s and low 40s. Winds will remain from the southwest along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and from the south towards the western areas.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the central Texas region move eastward on light to moderate winds will take will move across the plateau towards eastern Texas and Louisiana. Today and tomorrow temperatures will be warm under sunny skies today and partly cloudy skies tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon mostly cloudy skies will occur across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s today and approaching the 70s tomorrow. Winds will be light to moderate from the west today then begin to turn towards the southwest for tomorrow. Tomorrow night the winds will stay from the south and southwest across the region. The winds during the entire forecast period will be relatively stable and thus both entrainment as well as travel will be significant over the next two days. Low temperatures during the night will be mostly above freezing, except in the far west tonight.


OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow*** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Good conditions for entrainment exist today as well as tomorrow. Moderate conditions for transport exist today. Today’s conditions will see sunny skies over the region. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s in most areas with the edge communities getting close to 70. These temperatures will rise tomorrow with areas in the 70s. Winds will be in the light to moderate level from the west across the area. Pollen release is expected with the warm weather. Conditions for entrainment and travel today will be moderate to good with a stable atmosphere over the region. Pollen remaining entrained will be pushed towards the east across eastern Texas and into Louisiana. For these reasons the forecast is for moderate to good conditions for pollen traveling downwind. The region as a whole has had a number of days with high pollen levels and at some point the absolute number of trees still waiting to initiate pollination will begin to diminish. All of the trajectories today will push pollen that is entrained east on moderate wind levels. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen over the Edwards Plateau towards the east on westerly winds. Areas in eastern Texas and Louisiana will see significant levels of pollen in the atmosphere. Tomorrow conditions will be very similar with the winds coming from the southwest so a more northerly trajectory for pollen deposition.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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