The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 28 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be mild with warm temperatures in the upper 60’s to low 70’s today and tomorrow. Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest today, tonight and switching to a more southerly direction tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow night winds will move back to a southwesterly flow at low to moderate levels. In Oklahoma sunny skies with temperatures in the upper 60’s and low 70’s will occur with low temperatures in the low to mid 30’s overnight. Winds will be from the southwest at light to moderate levels today and tonight. Light and variable wind conditions are expected across the region where the junipers grow. Tomorrow temperatures will be in the low 70’s for the highs with southerly winds up to 10 miles per hour under partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow night skies will become mostly cloudy with temperatures cooling to the upper twenties towards the north and low 30’s around the Texas border region. Winds will remain light but from the southeast and there is a 20% chance of showers occurring with stormier conditions moving through Texas. In Texas, sunny skies will occur across the region today with the beginning of cloud build up to the west this afternoon and into tonight. Temperatures will be warming into the upper 60’s and low 70’s. Winds will be from the southwest across the region at moderate levels building to slightly stronger levels to the west late in the afternoon. At the same time clouds will begin to build as a system begins to move into the area. Tonight, those partly cloudy skies will build to mostly cloudy conditions. Temperatures will be warm with lows int the upper 30’s to mid 40’s. Winds to the west will switch to a southerly direction with the remaining area under a more southwesterly flow. Wind strength will remain moderate to light. Tomorrow cloudy conditions on the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau will bring a 50% chance of rain showers to the edge communities. To the west the chance of showers will build to a 20% to 30% chance. High temperatures will remain in the low 70’s to upper 60’s and winds will remain at a moderate level from the south. The chance of rain increases tomorrow night with a 60% to 70% chance of showers overnight in the edge communities. To the west the 20% to 30% chance of rain is maintained. Temperatures overnight will remain very warm with lows expected in the 40’s and 50’s across the region. Winds will return to a predominant southwesterly direction at light to moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move east to northeast on light to moderate winds that travel across the ground today that will take them across southeastern Oklahoma and into northern Arkansas. Temperatures today will be warm today with the areas where the junipers grow expected to be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s under sunny skies. Entrained pollen will move at or near ground level, however, with dense air across the area. Tonight winds will become light and maintain a southerly flow, temperatrures are expected to be in the mid to lower 30’s. Tomorrow warm temperatures will once again be in store for southern and central Oklahoma with highs in the 70 degree range. Winds will be from the south at slightly stronger conditions and but today’s sunny skies will degrade to partly cloudy conditions as a weather system moves across the Texas region. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy skies with seasonal overnight temperatures (upper 20’s to low 30”s) will occur but with mostly cloudy skies and a 20% chance of showers.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with warm temperatures in the area. However, there will be poor conditions for entrainment and travel today, and tomorrow as well. Sunny skies will occur with high temperatures in the upper 60’s today and lower 70’s tomorrow and provide very good conditions for pollination to occur at the tree sites. Winds today will be from the southwest at light to moderate conditions with the atmosphere stable and dense across the area. Overnight it will cool into the mid- 30’s with light and variable wind conditions. Light to moderate winds will continue to push any entrained pollen northeastward but light winds and a dense atmosphere will make entrainment and travel sub-optimal. The forecast conditions of warm temperatures and good conditions for pollination but poor conditions for entrainment and travel results in todays forecast only being moderate, and the chance of pollen will drop-off significantly at increasing distance from the trees.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page