The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Moderate

San Antonio

Moderate

 

Date Issued: 28 January 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Friday, January 28 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be mild with warm temperatures in the upper 60’s to low 70’s today and tomorrow. Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest today, tonight and switching to a more southerly direction tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow night winds will move back to a southwesterly flow at low to moderate levels. In Oklahoma sunny skies with temperatures in the upper 60’s and low 70’s will occur with low temperatures in the low to mid 30’s overnight. Winds will be from the southwest at light to moderate levels today and tonight. Light and variable wind conditions are expected across the region where the junipers grow. Tomorrow temperatures will be in the low 70’s for the highs with southerly winds up to 10 miles per hour under partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow night skies will become mostly cloudy with temperatures cooling to the upper twenties towards the north and low 30’s around the Texas border region. Winds will remain light but from the southeast and there is a 20% chance of showers occurring with stormier conditions moving through Texas. In Texas, sunny skies will occur across the region today with the beginning of cloud build up to the west this afternoon and into tonight. Temperatures will be warming into the upper 60’s and low 70’s. Winds will be from the southwest across the region at moderate levels building to slightly stronger levels to the west late in the afternoon. At the same time clouds will begin to build as a system begins to move into the area. Tonight, those partly cloudy skies will build to mostly cloudy conditions. Temperatures will be warm with lows int the upper 30’s to mid 40’s. Winds to the west will switch to a southerly direction with the remaining area under a more southwesterly flow. Wind strength will remain moderate to light. Tomorrow cloudy conditions on the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau will bring a 50% chance of rain showers to the edge communities. To the west the chance of showers will build to a 20% to 30% chance. High temperatures will remain in the low 70’s to upper 60’s and winds will remain at a moderate level from the south. The chance of rain increases tomorrow night with a 60% to 70% chance of showers overnight in the edge communities. To the west the 20% to 30% chance of rain is maintained. Temperatures overnight will remain very warm with lows expected in the 40’s and 50’s across the region. Winds will return to a predominant southwesterly direction at light to moderate levels.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the central Texas region move northeastward on light to moderate winds that will take the trajectories northward towards northern Texas and into southeasterly Oklahoma. Today and tomorrow temperatures will be warm with high readings in the 60’s and 70’s. Skies will be sunny today with partly cloudy conditions building towards the west and southwest. Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest. Tonight clouds continue to build with nighttime lows in the mid to upper 30’s towards the west and remaining in the 40’s to the east. Winds will remain light. Across the region today the air will be dense and so any pollen entrainment will travel near the ground. Tomorrow the clouds moving in from the southwest and west will result in a significant chance of showers. Temperatures will remain warm and winds will increase towards moderate conditions, but maintain their direction coming out of the southwest. Tomorrow night the chance of continue to increase, especially along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow*** good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment exist today as well as tomorrow. Poor conditions for transport exist today and tomorrow. Today’s conditions will see sunny skies over the region. Clouds will begin to build in this afternoon and overnight with a chance of showers increasing tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s in most areas. These temperatures will continue tomorrow with areas remaining in the 70’s.. Winds will be in the light to moderate level from the southwest today and from the south tonight. Pollen release is expected with the warm weather and sunny conditions both today and tomorrow. However, conditions for entrainment and travel today will be poor with light winds and travel at ground level. Pollen remaining entrained will be pushed north eastward over the Dallas/Fort Worth area into southeastern Oklahoma. For these reasons the forecast is for pollen moving toward Oklahoma but because of the conditions, the amount of pollen in the atmosphere will be reduced significantly with distance . The region as a whole has had a number of days with high pollen levels and there is the beginning of indications that many of the trees have finished their pollination season. All of the trajectories today will push pollen that is entrained towards the northeast on light to moderate wind levels. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen over the Edwards Plateau towards the north to northeast on light to moderate winds. Areas in northern Texas may see significant pollen levels but entrainment and travel are poor so at greater distances from the trees the amount of pollen will fall off significantly.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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