The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 29 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 29 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be mild with warm temperatures in the upper 60s to mid- 70s today. Winds will be moderate from the south today, and then tonight areas to the south will have winds from the southwest and in the north from the southeast. Tomorrow, winds will be from the north in the north, from the southwest along the eastern edges of the Edwards Plateau and from the northwest in areas of western Texas. Today and tonight there is a significant chance of showers in many areas of Texas and southern Oklahoma. In Oklahoma clear to partly cloudy skies will occur today with high temperatures in the lower 70s with low temperatures tonight in the low 30s to the north and the upper 30s along the border with Texas. Winds will be from the south at moderate levels today and diminishing to light conditions tonight shifting around to northerly winds after midnight. Overnight there is a 20% chance of showers in the region. Tomorrow temperatures will cool with highs expected in the lower 40s to just at 50 degrees. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers southward in Texas in the morning. Winds will have shifted coming from the north at light to moderate strength. Tomorrow night cloudy skies with the chance of drizzle will occur, temperatures will be in the low 30’s and winds will be light and variable. In Texas today, cloudy skies will build during the day with an increasing chance of rain towards the afternoon. Temperatures will remain warm in the 60s to low 70s. The western regions will see a slight chance of precipitation today and tonight. Over the Edwards Plateau the chance will build towards the eastern edge communities where there is a 50% chance of precipitation today increasing to a 60% to 70% tonight. Low temperatures will be in the 40s to 50s in the eastern edge communities falling to the lower 40s and upper 30s to the west. Winds will be from the south today at moderate levels. Tonight winds will shift coming from the southwest. Tomorrow the chance of precipitation declines with remnants of the system moving through the central and northern areas of the Edwards Plateau. Into the afternoon conditions will be clearing. Temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s with winds from the southwest over the eastern Edward Plateau area, but from the northwest in the western regions. Tomorrow night partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions will occur with temperatures relatively warm with no area expected to be below freezing. Winds will be light and shifting over the area.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau moves north towards central-eastern Oklahoma on southerly breezes today and southwesterly breezes tonight. The winds begin heavy travelling at the elevation that they begin at for some time before becoming incorporated into more buoyant conditions. The lowest elevation winds remain over the Edwards Plateau moving towards the Dallas/ Fort Worth area on its way toward eastern Oklahoma. Temperatures will be warm today and tomorrow, but this afternoon and tomorrow will see a building chance of precipitation across the region. This morning skies appear relatively clear but building clouds and humidity will shift the conditions towards damping down pollen shedding as well as entrainment and travel. Tomorrow skies will begin to clear, temperatures will return to today’s level. Winds will shift as the eastern areas maintain a southwesterly flow, areas to the north and west will see the incursion of northerly and northwesterly winds. Temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be seasonal with most areas above the freezing levels.


OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow*** Moderate to poor conditions for pollen release today dependent on the development of showers. Better conditions tomorrow. Moderate conditions for entrainment exist today as well as tomorrow. Poor conditions for transport exist today and good conditions tomorrow. Today’s pollen release is dependent upon the conditions of developing showers over the Edwards Plateau during today’s conditions that are generally good for pollen release. The trajectories show that the atmosphere is heavy travelling at ground level. This usually removes a significant amount of pollen through the process of impaction. Temperatures will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s in most areas. These temperatures will continue tomorrow with areas remaining in the 70’s.. Winds will be in the light to moderate level from the south and southwest today and tonight and then beginning to shift to a more northerly direction tomorrow and tomorrow night. There is a significant chance of showers throughout the region today and especially tonight. The system should clear by tomorrow morning and skies begin to clear resulting in sunny conditions tomorrow afternoon and evening. Pollen release is expected with the warm weather and sunny conditions both today and tomorrow, but rain showers may wash much of it out of the atmosphere. Conditions for entrainment and travel today will be poor with travel at ground level. Pollen remaining entrained will be pushed north eastward over the Dallas/Fort Worth area into southeastern Oklahoma. For these reasons the forecast is for pollen moving toward Oklahoma but because of the conditions, the amount of pollen in the atmosphere will be reduced significantly with distance. The region as a whole has had a number of days with high pollen levels and there is the beginning of indications that many of the trees have finished their pollination season. All of the trajectories today will push pollen that is entrained towards the northeast on light to moderate wind levels. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen over the Edwards Plateau towards the north to northeast on light to moderate winds. Areas in northern Texas may see significant pollen levels but entrainment and travel are poor so at greater distances from the trees the amount of pollen will fall off significantly.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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