The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sunday, January 30 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be mild with temperatures cooling off today reaching only from the mid 30s to mid 40s to the north, but temperatures well above seasonal norms to the south across Texas. In Oklahoma, skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy as north winds bring colder conditions at moderate winds strength. Tonight there is a chance of drizzle under cloudy to mostly cloudy skies across the area as temperatures stay in the mid to upper 30s. Winds will become light and variable. Tomorrow the chance of drizzle remains with cloudy conditions across the area. Winds will remain light and variable. Tomorrow night, however a strong system begins to move into the region with winds ramping up with moderate to strong winds from the north. Temperatures will drop into the teens and twenties and there will be a chance of snow to the north and freezing rain across the area along the border with Texas. In Texas today, the skies will vary between partly cloudy to begin with then becoming sunny or starting sunny then becoming partly cloudy. As the day begins there was a chance of showers along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau but most of the day will be clear and mostly sunny. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be above seasonal norms with a lot of 70 degrees plus being recorded. Winds will be moderate with an east to west split. Those in the eastern area will be from the southwest whereas those in the western areas will see winds from the northwest. The lite to moderate wind conditions will remain until tomorrow afternoon when a significant change in the weather begins to push into the area. Tonight the region will have partly to mostly cloudy conditions with warm conditions overnight. The eastern edge communities will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s for low temperatures. In the east 30s and 40s are expected. Winds will be light and mixed across the area. Tomorrow morning there is a chance of fog along the eastern edge, but temperatures will warm quickly into the 70s across the whole region. Winds will begin to ramp up in strength as the system nears to the north. Winds will be from the southeast along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and from the south to southwest from the central Edwards Plateau towards the west. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy skies and a significant chance of showers across the region occurs. Temperatures will continue to be 50s across much of the eastern Edwards Plateau, and 30s to 40s in the west. Winds will be from the south at strong levels. In the west winds begin to turn to a direction from the northwest late at night accompanied by very strong gusty conditions.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move south to southwest towards northern Texas at ground level on light winds. The winds begin dense travelling at the elevation that they begin at for the forecast period. The winds from southern Oklahoma will move slowly and remain relatively close to their origin in northernmost Texas Tonight and tomorrow the winds remain light and variable, until weather changes tomorrow night bringing strong winds from the north pushing cold air southward across Texas. Tonight and tomorrow morning there is a chance of drizzle throughout the region. Tomorrow temperatures will return to the low 50’s and upper 40’s then tomorrow night cold conditions take over with the chance of snow and freezing rain. Surface temperatures will be in the upper teens to mid 20’s with northeasterly winds from 10 to 20 miles an hour.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area today then an increasing chance of precipitation tonight and tomorrow. There will be poor conditions for entrainment and travel both today and tomorrow. Cold conditions today will be poor for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur for shed pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with lite to moderate winds today easing to light and variable winds tonight and tomorrow. Surface winds today will be stable to slightly heavy, with any pollen that has become entrained moving through the vegetation as it travels. In cases where this happens impaction on objects becomes a significant cleanser of the atmosphere with distance. Tonight the chance of drizzle over the region increases with lite and variable winds. The chance of drizzle remains tomorrow with an almost duplicate of temperatures as today, although the winds remain lite and variable. A significant change in weather will occur tomorrow night with a significant chance of snow and light freezing rain across the region. Winds tomorrow night will become strong and gusty as today’s mild conditions are overtaken by a significant weather system moving through the region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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