The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

High

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Sunday, January 30 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be mild with temperatures cooling off today reaching only from the mid 30s to mid 40s to the north, but temperatures well above seasonal norms to the south across Texas. In Oklahoma, skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy as north winds bring colder conditions at moderate winds strength. Tonight there is a chance of drizzle under cloudy to mostly cloudy skies across the area as temperatures stay in the mid to upper 30s. Winds will become light and variable. Tomorrow the chance of drizzle remains with cloudy conditions across the area. Winds will remain light and variable. Tomorrow night, however a strong system begins to move into the region with winds ramping up with moderate to strong winds from the north. Temperatures will drop into the teens and twenties and there will be a chance of snow to the north and freezing rain across the area along the border with Texas. In Texas today, the skies will vary between partly cloudy to begin with then becoming sunny or starting sunny then becoming partly cloudy. As the day begins there was a chance of showers along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau but most of the day will be clear and mostly sunny. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be above seasonal norms with a lot of 70 degrees plus being recorded. Winds will be moderate with an east to west split. Those in the eastern area will be from the southwest whereas those in the western areas will see winds from the northwest. The lite to moderate wind conditions will remain until tomorrow afternoon when a significant change in the weather begins to push into the area. Tonight the region will have partly to mostly cloudy conditions with warm conditions overnight. The eastern edge communities will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s for low temperatures. In the east 30s and 40s are expected. Winds will be light and mixed across the area. Tomorrow morning there is a chance of fog along the eastern edge, but temperatures will warm quickly into the 70s across the whole region. Winds will begin to ramp up in strength as the system nears to the north. Winds will be from the southeast along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and from the south to southwest from the central Edwards Plateau towards the west. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy skies and a significant chance of showers across the region occurs. Temperatures will continue to be 50s across much of the eastern Edwards Plateau, and 30s to 40s in the west. Winds will be from the south at strong levels. In the west winds begin to turn to a direction from the northwest late at night accompanied by very strong gusty conditions.




Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau shift their characteristics from east to west today. Towards the east the atmosphere is much more buoyant from the system that moved through recently and thus trajectories from the eastern areas will move rapidly towards the northeast. These areas will have good characteristics for entrainment and rapid travel. To the west winds form the northwest will be prominent and move the atmosphere over the Plateau region then come under the reign of more buoyant southwesterly winds creating conditions leading to quick movement northward . Winds to the north today will be calming with northerly movement becoming dominant at the ground. Temperatures will be above normal levels today and tomorrow with highs both days expected in the 70’s. Winds will be moderate mostly from the south as warm humid gulf air pushes northward. The region will see warm and humid conditions as the dominant winds are coming off the gulf. Tomorrow night, however, a significant winter system moves into the region with cold temperatures behind it which will drop temperatures and shift winds significantly. Freezing rain and snow are expected across northern Texas.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow*** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with warm conditions. Good conditions for entrainment on moderate winds exist today as well as tomorrow. Good conditions for transport exist today and tomorrow under a southerly flow. Today’s pollen release will be well suited across Texas to the warm conditions that are expected. There is a push of warm gulf air into the region that will also bring higher levels of humidity. Winds will be moderate in most areas today, tonight and tomorrow. Very warm conditions will return tomorrow as a precursor to a significant change tomorrow night. A very cold system is moving southward out of the Rocky Mountains and will begin to cross the area on Monday night. Snow and freezing rain are currently in the forecast for northern Texas. In addition, Monday night into Tuesday winds will become strong across the region with gust at 30 to 35 miles per hour in many areas. The wind trajectories show the overall pattern moving entrained pollen over north eastern Texas and south eastern Oklahoma on light to moderate winds. Areas in northeastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma may see significant pollen levels. Entrainment and travel will be much better than recent conditions because of a buoyant atmosphere to the east and changing conditions to the west as a significant weather system moves into the area Monday evening.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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